Newmont vs. Barrick Gold: Which Mining Giant Is the Better Bet Now?
Newmont Corporation NEM and Barrick Gold Corporation GOLD are two of the biggest gold mining companies on the planet, each with extensive operations across multiple continents and diversified portfolios. With gold prices soaring, driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, comparing these two industry giants is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.Gold prices have zoomed to unprecedented levels this year, hitting a record high of $3,167 per ounce last Thursday. The surge is largely attributed to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Trump, which have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have significantly increased their gold reserves, led by risks from Trump’s policies. These factors have collectively bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two mining giants to determine which one is a better investment now. The Case for Newmont Newmont remains committed to investing in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and Cadia Panel Caves in Australia. These projects should expand production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has also created an industry-leading portfolio with a multi-decade gold and copper production profile in the most favorable mining jurisdictions globally. The combination of Newmont and Newcrest is expected to deliver significant value for its shareholders and generate meaningful synergies. NEM has achieved $500 million in annual run-rate synergies, following the Newcrest buyout. Newmont also remains committed to divesting non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM’s attributable gold production rose around 9% year over year in the fourth quarter on strong performance from its managed Tier 1 portfolio. The company, in March 2025, completed the divestment of three non-core assets — the Musselwhite and Eleonore operations in Canada and the Cripple Creek & Victor operation in Colorado. Total gross proceeds from disclosed divestitures are expected to reach $4.3 billion, including $3.8 billion from non-core divestitures and $527 million from the sale of other investments. Newmont looks to complete the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada in the first half of 2025. Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of 2024, Newmont had liquidity of $7.7 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $3.6 billion. It generated a strong operating cash flow from continuing operations of $6.3 billion in 2024, climbing from around $2.8 billion in 2023. Its operating cash flow soared four-fold year over year to around $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Free cash flow for 2024 was $2.9 billion, including a record $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter. NEM also delivered $1.1 billion to its shareholders through dividends and repurchased shares worth $1.2 billion under its $3 billion total share repurchase program in 2024. NEM offers a dividend yield of 2.3% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable. Despite these positives, Newmont is being challenged by higher production costs, which will likely weigh on its margins over the near term. Its gold costs applicable to sales (CAS) rose roughly 7% year over year in 2024. Newmont also saw a 5% increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC). Newmont expects gold AISC for the total portfolio to be $1,630 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a rise from $1,516 per ounce in 2024. The impacts of increased direct operating costs are leading to cost inflation. Higher materials, labor and contract services costs, despite somewhat easing lately, remain a concern. The company, in particular, is stung by higher labor costs, which constitute about half of its direct costs.The Case for Barrick Barrick has pulled off a remarkable comeback this year following a lackluster 2024, thanks to surging gold prices. It reeled under the effects of high production costs and operational issues across certain mines, which impacted its production last year. Barrick is progressing with its key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Donlin Gold, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are currently being executed. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, underpinning the next generation of profitable production. Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of 2024, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $4.1 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $4.5 billion in 2024, up 20% year over year. Free cash flow surged 104% year over year to around $1.3 billion for full-year 2024. GOLD returned about $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick’s board has authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. GOLD offers a healthy dividend yield of 2.3% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 31%, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 4.6%.On the flip side, GOLD is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Both its cash costs per ounce of gold and AISC increased around 11% year over year in 2024. AISC increased due to higher total cash costs per ounce and higher mine-site sustaining capital expenditures. For 2025, the company projects total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. Increased mine-site sustaining capital spending and higher labor costs may lead to higher costs.Price Performance and Valuation of NEM & GOLDYear to date, NEM stock has risen 18.7%, while GOLD stock has racked up a gain of 14% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s increase of 24.9%. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.62X, lower than its five-year median. This represents a roughly 12% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 15.55X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBarrick looks more attractively priced than Newmont. The GOLD stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.44X, lower than its five-year median and below the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow Do Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for NEM & GOLD?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year decline of 3.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending lower over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe consensus estimate for GOLD’s 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 4.7% and 10.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending southward over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNEM or GOLD: Which is a Better Pick?Both NEM and GOLD currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Both Newmont and Barrick are well-positioned to benefit from the current surge in gold prices, each demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. On the other hand, they face the common headwind of higher production costs. However, Barrick appears to have a slight edge over Newmont due to its more attractive valuation. In addition, Barrick's positive growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment. Investors seeking exposure to the gold space might consider Barrick as the more favorable option at this time.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks
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