Pfizer (PFE) Down 1.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Pfizer (PFE). Shares have lost about 1.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Pfizer due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 63 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents per share. The company had recorded earnings of 10 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Its earnings growth was driven by improved revenues and lower costs.Revenues came in at $17.76 billion, up 22% from the year-ago quarter on a reported basis. Revenues reflected an operational increase of 21% and a positive currency impact of 1%. Total revenues also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.5 billion.Revenues mainly benefited from a one-time, non-cash Paxlovid revenue reversal of $3.5 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter.Higher sales of Pfizer’s key non-COVID products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis and newly acquired products from Seagen, coupled with higher Paxlovid sales, drove the top line in the quarter. However, sales of some key drugs like Prevnar, Xeljanz and Ibrance and new RSV vaccine, Abrysvo declined in the quarter.Seagen drugs contributed $915 million to the top line in the fourth quarter and $3.4 billion in 2024. Revenues from Pfizer’s non-COVID products rose 11% operationally in the fourth quarter and 12% in 2024 (exceeding the guidance range of 9-11%). International revenues declined 12% on an operational basis to $8.54 billion. U.S. revenues rose 88% to $9.22 billion.Adjusted selling, informational and administrative (SI&A) expenses declined 4% (operationally) in the quarter to $4.28 billion due to lower spending behind the marketing of Comirnaty and Paxlovid, partially offset by an increase in spending for certain oncology drugs, newly launched and acquired products. Adjusted R&D expenses rose 8% to $2.99 billion as higher spending on certain acquired assets from Seagen was partially offset by lower spending on some vaccine programs and savings from the cost realignment program.Segment DiscussionPfizer reports its revenues under three broad sub-segments of its Biopharma operating segment — Primary Care, Specialty Care and Oncology. Sales of the Primary Care segment rose 26% operationally to $8.91 billion. The Specialty Care unit recorded sales of $4.44 billion, up 12%. Sales of Oncology rose 27% to $4.06 billion, driven by strong contributions from Padcev, Xtandi, Lorbrena and Braftovi/Mektovi.Primary CareIn Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers rose 13% to $1.83 billion driven by continued share gains in the oral anti-coagulant market and recent launches in international markets. However, sales were hurt by lower pricing in the United States due to unfavorable channel mix. Alliance revenues from Eliquis beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66 billion as well as our model estimate of $1.61 billion.Global Prevnar family revenues declined 4% to $1.56 billion, driven by fewer adult vaccinations in the United States. The Prevnar family includes revenues from Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 (pediatric and adult) and Prevnar 20 (adult and pediatric). Prevnar revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate and beat our model estimate of $1.53 billion by a slight margin. Prevnar sales declined 7% in the United States and were flat in international marketsDirect sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty were $3.38 billion in the quarter, down 38% year over year due to lower vaccinations globally and lower contracted doses. Comirnaty sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.27 billion and our estimate of $3.13 billion.Paxlovid revenues were $727 million in the quarter against negative $3.2 billion in the year-ago quarter. Paxlovid revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $589 million and our model estimate of $546 million.Newly acquired product Nurtec ODT/Vydura contributed $392 million in the quarter, which rose 39% year over year, driven by strong demand in the United States and launches in international markets. Among the new products, Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, recorded sales of $198 million, down 62% year over year. Abrysvo revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $363 million as well as our model estimate of $425 million. While Abrysvo sales benefited from the launch uptake in international markets and demand growth for the maternal indication, sales in the United States for the older adult indication were hurt due to revised recommendations for RSV vaccinations issued in June 2024 by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.Specialty CareGlobal Vyndaqel family revenues of $1.55 billion rose 60% year over year, driven by continued demand growth as more patients are diagnosed, primarily in the United States and developed Europe, and increased affordability in the United States. The Vyndaqel family includes global revenues from Vyndaqel as well as revenues for Vyndamax in the United States and Vynmac in Japan. Vyndaqel family sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our model estimate of $1.52 billion.Xeljanz sales declined 29% to $349 million. Enbrel revenues declined 9% to $183 million.Oxbryta generated sales of $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, down 91% year over year. In September, Pfizer announced that it is voluntarily withdrawing all lots of Oxbryta from the global markets where it is approved. Another new drug, Cibinqo recorded revenues of $64 million in the quarter, up 71% year over year.OncologyPfizer’s acquisition of Seagen in December 2023 added antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs — Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak — to its cancer portfolio. Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak contributed $285 million, $444 million, $129 million and $36 million, respectively, to Pfizer’s oncology revenues in the fourth quarter. Pfizer is particularly seeing strong demand trends for Padceb.In Oncology, Ibrance revenues declined 2% year over year to $1.1 billion. Lower demand trends globally due to competitive pressure and price decreases in some developed international markets hurt sales growth. Ibrance revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 billion and were in line with our estimate.Xtandi recorded alliance revenues of $565 million in the quarter, up 24% year over year, driven by strong demand following approval for expanded use in non-metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer received in the fourth quarter of 2023. Inlyta revenues were $242 million in the quarter, down 8%. Lorbrena revenues were $192 million in the quarter, up 31% driven by market share gains following positive data from the phase III CROWN study presented in June 2024. Braftovi/Mektovi revenues were $170 million, up 30% year over year.Revenues from oncology biosimilars were $209 million, down 35% year over year.Full-Year 2024 ResultsFull-year 2024 sales rose 7% to $63.6 billion, marginally beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $63.4 billion. Sales were within the guided range of $61.0 to $64.0 billion. On an operational basis, sales rose 7% in the year. Adjusted earnings for 2024 were $3.11 per share, up 69% year over year. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96 per share and came ahead of the guided range of $2.75 to $2.95. 2025 Guidance ReaffirmedPfizer maintained its guidance for 2025, which it had announced in December 2024.Pfizer projects total revenues between $61.0 billion and $64.0 billion. On an operational basis, revenues in 2025 are expected to be approximately flat to up 5%, excluding the impact of approximately $1.2 billion of non-recurring revenues for Paxlovid. COVID revenues in 2025 are expected to be similar to 2024, excluding the $1.2 billion in one-time benefits from Paxlovid. The 2025 revenue guidance also includes an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion (or 1.6% impact on operational growth) from the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which takes effect in 2025. Higher-priced drugs, including Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are expected to be most affected by the IRA. Pfizer expects Comirnaty and Paxlovid to maintain market share in 2025 with stable pricing due to their commercialization in both the United States and international markets. While Abrysvo sales are expected to benefit from international market expansion, its sales in the United States are expected to be impacted by the ACIP recommendations. Prevnar's revenues are expected to moderately decline in 2025 due to competitive pressure for the adult indication with limited catch-up opportunities in the over-65 population in the United States. However, the pediatric market is expected to remain stable with potential growth opportunities in the 50 to 64 age group in the United States as well as in international markets.In oncology, while Padcev and Lorbrena are expected to see continued growth, Ibrance is expected to be impacted by continued competitive pressure across markets as well as generic entry in select markets as well as the IRA. The unfavorable impact of the IRA and new competition in the United States can hurt Vyndaqel’s growth, while increases in diagnosis and treatment rates are expected to drive continued expansion. Eliquis sales are expected to continue to grow driven by market and share increases. Xeljanz is expected to continue experiencing competitive and pricing pressures in 2025, which coupled with the impact from the IRA is expected to hurt revenues. Xeljanz is expected to face patent expiry in the United States and Japan towards the end of 2025.Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range of $2.80 to $3.00, which represents operational growth (excluding Fx impact) of 10% to 18% year over year. Research and development expense is expected to be in the range of $10.7 billion to $11.7 billion in 2025. SI&A spending is expected in the range of $13.3 billion to $14.3 billion. The adjusted tax rate is expected to be approximately 15% in 2025.Adjusted operating margin is expected to increase by around 250 basis points from the 2024 level. Pfizer expects cost cuts and internal restructuring, including layoffs, to deliver savings of approximately $4.5 billion by the end of 2025. Its ongoing cost realignment plan generated savings of $4 billion in 2024, as expected. Pfizer expects to deliver $1.5 billion of cost savings from the first phase of its Manufacturing Optimization Program by the end of 2027.Other UpdatesPfizer terminated its global collaboration with Sangamo for the hemophilia A candidate, giroctocogene fitelparvovec. It will return rights to the candidate to Sangamo when the deal terminates, effective April 1, 2025.Pfizer sold 700 million ordinary shares of its investment in Haleon for approximately $3.0 billion, which brings down its stake in Haleon from approximately 15% to approximately 7%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.VGM ScoresCurrently, Pfizer has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookPfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerPfizer belongs to the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry. Another stock from the same industry, Sanofi (SNY), has gained 10.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2024.Sanofi reported revenues of $11.27 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.2%. EPS of $0.70 for the same period compares with $0.89 a year ago.For the current quarter, Sanofi is expected to post earnings of $0.86 per share, indicating a change of -10.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.9% over the last 30 days.Sanofi has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone.See Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Sanofi (SNY): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks