Carnival Jumps 36% in 6 Months: Should You Buy the Rise or Wait?

Carnival Corporation & plc CCL has gained 35.5% in the past six months, outpacing the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500. The detailed price performance is shown in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis cruise and vacation company is thriving on solid demand for its diversified product offerings, driven by its strategic marketing campaigns and fleet optimization efforts. Also, its focus on efficiently using its free cash to reduce debt levels and ensure operational excellence is encouraging.Notably, during the past six months, CCL also outperformed a few of the other industry players including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited OSW and Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. LIND. During the same time frame, NCLH, OSW and LIND gained 31%, 15.2% and 9.6%, respectively.Estimate Trend Favors CCLThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival’s fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has trended upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates 24.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure. Furthermore, earnings estimates for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 have moved up in the past 30 days, indicating 114.3% year-over-year growth. The upward revision in earnings estimates indicates analysts’ increasing confidence in the stock.EPS TrendImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat’s Driving Carnival’s Momentum?Growing Demand Boosting Booking Trends: Carnival has been witnessing solid demand for its services throughout its global fleet offerings. The uptrend is attributable to increased booking trends, enhanced commercial execution and diversified fleet offerings, with enhanced onboard services. As of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, nearly half of 2025 is already booked, with less inventory available than last year. Also, the booking volumes for 2026 were high. Owing to the growing demand trends, the company’s 2024 revenues grew year over year to $25.02 billion from $21.59 billion. Revenues from Passenger ticket and Onboard and other increased year over year by 17% to $16.46 billion and 13.7% to $8.56 billion, respectively.Notably, the company’s strategic investment in advertising is yielding significant returns, stimulating demand across its portfolio with the launch of several new campaigns during the peak seasons. In 2024, web visits were up 40% and paid search jumped approximately 60% from the 2019 levels.Enhanced Fleet Offerings: Carnival intently focuses on fleet expansion and optimization to drive growth. It is actively pursuing additional initiatives to sustain its momentum and tap into untapped revenue and margin expansion opportunities. In 2024, the company received delivery of three new ships, including Sun Princess (Princess Cruise's next-generation flagship), Carnival Jubilee (Carnival Cruise Line's third Excel-class ship) and Queen Anne (Cunard’s first new ship in 14 years). These new additions are poised to generate heightened interest and demand for their respective brands.Moreover, CCL anticipates the fleet optimization initiative to boost revenues in premium-priced balcony cabins, an improved platform for onboard revenue opportunities and an improvement in ship operating costs. One of its upcoming optimization moves includes phasing out the P&O Cruises Australia brand, selling the 28-year-old Pacific Explorer and transferring two remaining vessels to Carnival Cruise Line by early 2025.Reducing Debt: Since the beginning of fiscal 2024, Carnival has been managing its cash position while reducing its long-term debt levels. The company has been focusing on its refinancing and deleveraging efforts, which have undoubtedly helped it in managing its debt profile. At the end of fiscal 2024, its long-term debt was $25.94 billion, down from $28.48 billion at fiscal 2023-end. Moreover, the short-term obligations were also down as of fiscal 2024-end to $1.54 billion from $2.09 billion as of fiscal 2023-end.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe company aims to continue searching for more opportunistic re-financings over time, thus reducing debt further and improving adjusted EBITDA. In fiscal 2024, CCL’s adjusted EBITDA improved 44.4% year over year to $6.11 billion. For fiscal 2025, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $6.6 billion.CCL Trading at a DiscountCarnival is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers on a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio basis. The discounted valuation indicates that despite the recent stock price increase in the past six months, it remains an attractive option for investors looking for a suitable entry point.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCCL Stock’s Trends Compared With 50 & 200-Day SMAFrom the graphical representation given below, it can be observed that CCL stock is trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but riding just below the 50-day SMA, signaling a mixed trend. The stock started trading below its 50-day SMA on Jan. 3, but it seems to be gaining traction since Jan. 13, 2025.50 & 200-Day Moving AverageImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOver the past month, shares of Carnival have dipped 3% compared with the broader industry’s 6% decline. While the recent downturn is largely due to macroeconomic headwinds, the company’s robust tailwinds, as outlined above, are strengthening its long-term growth prospects and positioning it for a rebound.Is it Fruitful to Consider CCL Stock in Your Portfolio?As discussed above, Carnival is benefiting from its strategically curated marketing campaigns, fleet enhancements and the objective of reducing its debt level. The investments made by the company to boost booking trends against a positive market backdrop are noteworthy. Furthermore, CCL’s focus on realizing benefits from increased top-line growth by reducing debt levels and ensuring shareholder value is also encouraging. Such motives of the company must be considered by investors when undertaking any decisions in favor of the stock.Carnival trading just below its 50-day moving average might foster confusion regarding the stock, but the efforts undertaken to boost its growth into 2025 and beyond must not be overlooked. Given a robust demand environment for leisure activities, the company’s prospects are promising given it faring well in the cruise service market.Thus, based on the overall discussion and the favorable trends of technical indicators, investors can consider adding this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock to their portfolio for now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockIt's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Carnival Corporation (CCL): Free Stock Analysis Report Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): Free Stock Analysis Report Lindblad Expeditions (LIND): Free Stock Analysis Report OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks