Why Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 4.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG). Shares have lost about 4.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Harley-Davidson Q4 Loss Wider Than Expected, Revenues Fall Y/YHarley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted loss of 93 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 68 cents. The company reported earnings of 18 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The motorcycle manufacturer generated consolidated revenues (including motorcycle sales and financial services revenues) of $688 million, down 35% from the prior-year quarter.Segmental HighlightsHarley-Davidson Motor Company: Total revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment, constituting the bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, fell 47% on a year-over-year basis to $420 million and missed our forecast of $463 million on lower-than-expected motorcycle shipments. Motorcycle shipments worldwide decreased 15% to 25,700 units and lagged our estimate of 27,122 units. In the quarter under review, revenues from the sale of motorcycles came in at $231 million, down 60% year over year. The segment incurred an operating loss of $214 million, wider than the loss of $44 million in the corresponding quarter of 2023. We expected an operating loss of $139.4 million from the segment.During the reported quarter, Harley-Davidson retailed 25,660 motorcycle units globally, down 14.9% year over year. Its retail motorcycle units sold in North America decreased 4% to 15,127. Sales in EMEA or Europe, the Middle East and Africa declined 7% year over year. Sales in the Asia Pacific and Latin America fell 26% and 7% year over year, respectively.  Revenues for parts & accessories were down 10% from a year ago to $118 million but exceeded our estimate of $94.7 million. Revenues from apparel fell 6% year over year to $54 million but beat our projection of $53.4 million.Harley-Davidson Financial Services: Revenues for Harley-Davidson Financial Services totaled $257 million, up 4% year over year but missed our forecast of $267.1 million. Operating income fell 20% to $46 million and missed our estimate of $56.1 million.LiveWire: During the reported quarter, the total shipment for LiveWire was 236 units, declining 54% from the year-ago quarter levels. Revenues declined 32% to $10 million. Operating loss narrowed from $35 million to $26 million. The reported loss was narrower than our projection of $29 million.Financial PositionIn the fourth quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit decreased to $210.5 million from $225.5 million in the year-ago quarter. The company paid dividends of 17.25 cents per share in the reported quarter.Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.59 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024, up from $1.53 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023. In the same period, the long-term debt decreased to $4.47 million from $4.99 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2023.2025 GuidanceFor 2025, the company expects revenues from HDMC to remain flat to down 5% year over year. The operating income margin expectation for the motorcycle segment is in the range of 7-8%. HOG expects its operating income for Financial Services to fall 10-15% compared to 2024.For the LiveWire segment, electric motorcycle wholesale units are expected to be in the range of 1,000-1,500. Operating loss for the segment is anticipated to be in the range of $70-$80 million. Capital expenditure projection for the full year is estimated to be in the range of $225-$250 million.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted -46.08% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Harley-Davidson has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2025. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful. From inception in 2012 through November, 2024, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,112.6%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +475.6%. Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2025. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential. See New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks