Toast Plunges 17% in a Month: Should You Hold or Fold the Stock?

Toast Inc. TOST shares have plunged 16.8% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P500 index’s decline of 11.5% and 7.4%, respectively. The stock has also underperformed industry peers, including Aspen Technology AZPN, Bentley Systems BSY and JFrog FROG.As one of the leading providers of software-as-a-service (SaaS) and hardware solutions focused on the restaurant market, TOST’s recent decline raises the question: Should investors hold the stock or exit the investment?One Month Price Return PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhy TOST Stock is Declining?The recent decline in Toast stems from broader market weakness. Investor sentiment has soured amid escalating trade war concerns, with tariffs raising fears of increased costs and dampening consumer purchasing power. President Donald Trump has hiked the tariff rates to 25% on all imported goods from China, Canada and Mexico.The National Restaurant Association has noted that the 25% tariff hike can cause a 30% profit loss for the average independent restaurant operator, costing the entire restaurant industry up to $12.1 billion. The recent development puts TOST’s business at risk, which is already experiencing customer churn among smaller restaurant customers.Probable decline in revenues due to customer losses, coupled with rising R&D costs to stay competitive, is expected to pressure margins, leading to investor pessimism about the stock. However, not all is gloom and doom for TOST stock.TOST Thrives on Location Additions and Repeat CustomersSince macroeconomic pressure and tax scares are forcing small businesses to give up on sophisticated restaurant solutions provided by TOST, the company is now focusing on expanding among enterprise restaurants and food and beverage retail.Toast is also expanding by targeting new addressable markets, including the convenience store sector, not limiting its reach to the food and beverage sector only. Toast has added features, including Electronic Benefit Transfer and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program payments. Toast added 7,000 locations in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 134,000 locations in total, reflecting 26% year-over-year growth.Alongside location additions and international expansion, Toast’s business is also driven by rising annual recurring revenues due to a larger share of repeat customers. Higher adoption of its solutions among customers is mainly due to its suite-based packaging model that simplifies sales and encourages customers to adopt more of the platform over time, boosting average revenue per user.Toast’s focus on innovation has enabled it to develop AI-powered marketing suites, digital storefronts and restaurant management systems that enhance guest experience and efficiency while reducing costs. New offerings like the Branded App for native iOS and Android ordering, delivery, loyalty and SMS Marketing to drive engagement and revenues are expected to provide TOST an edge over its competition.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.07 billion, suggesting growth of 22.3% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 92 cents per share, indicating 2,966.7% growth year over year. TOST also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, missing the same on one occasion, with an average surprise of 197.4%.Toast, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Toast, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Toast, Inc. QuoteFind the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.TOST Trades at Discounted Valuation MultipleThe recent decline in the stock price has made Toast’s valuations attractive. TOST’s current valuation suggests that the stock is available at a discounted price compared with the industry average. TOST stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.62, significantly lower than the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry average of 5.70.TOST Forward 12-Month P/S RatioImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchConclusion: Hold TOST for NowAlthough TOST is facing near-term headwinds related to macroeconomic factors and the U.S. tariff policies, its long-term prospects remain bright due to a healthy rate of location additions and innovations brought to its portfolio.TOST’s attractive valuation makes it a stock worth retaining at present. We recommend investors to hold this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock for now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN): Free Stock Analysis Report JFrog Ltd. (FROG): Free Stock Analysis Report Bentley Systems, Incorporated (BSY): Free Stock Analysis Report Toast, Inc. (TOST): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks