Here's How to Play Barrick Gold Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release
Barrick Gold Corporation GOLD is slated to come up with fourth-quarter 2024 results before the opening bell on Feb. 12. The company’s performance is expected to reflect higher gold prices and strong production.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised 8.9% downward in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 41 cents per share, suggesting a 51.9% year-over-year rise. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchGOLD beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 16.1%, on average.Q4 Earnings Whispers for GOLD StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Barrick this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Barrick has an Earnings ESP of +1.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Shaping GOLD’s Q4 ResultsHigher gold prices are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the December quarter. Gold has been among the best-performing assets in 2024. Gold prices rallied roughly 27% last year, driven by strong demand from central banks, monetary easing in the United States, global uncertainties and a surge in safe-haven demand thanks to increased tensions in the Middle East and Russia. Strong production is also expected to have aided GOLD in the fourth quarter. Gold production is expected to have been driven by the ramp-up of the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, improved production from Nevada Gold Mines and strong performance from the Kibali mine on higher grades. Barrick said last month that Kibali delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter, which resulted in the highest annual throughput since its commissioning. This was achieved through the mine’s continued focus on operational excellence and its capacity to deliver strong results. The company’s copper production is also likely to have been aided by higher grades at Lumwana. Higher production is expected to have driven GOLD’s fourth-quarter performance. Higher year-over-year production costs are likely to have weighed on the company’s performance. In the third quarter of 2024, its cash costs per ounce of gold increased around 21% year over year, while all-in-sustaining costs (“AISC”) rose roughly 20%. GOLD projects total cash costs per ounce of $940-$1,020 and AISC of $1,320-$1,420 per ounce for full-year 2024, which indicates a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. Barrick Stock’s Price Performance and ValuationGOLD’s shares have gained 15.7% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 48.4% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 20.9%. Among its peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have racked up gains of 33.6%, 127.8% and 109.7%, respectively, over the same period. GOLD’s One-year Stock Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, GOLD is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.14X, lower than its five-year median. This represents a roughly 21.5% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 14.20X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thesis for GOLD StockBarrick is well-positioned to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects are advancing per schedule and within budget, which underpins the next generation of profitable production. Barrick has a robust liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, which position it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, as well as drive shareholder value and reduce debt. Surging gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation.GOLD is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Increased mine-site sustaining capital spending, higher labor costs and potentially steeper energy costs may lead to higher costs.Final Thoughts: Hold Onto GOLD SharesGOLD is well-placed with a strong pipeline of growth projects, solid financial health, healthy growth trajectory and favorable gold market conditions. The strength in gold prices should also boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation. Despite these positives, its high production costs warrant caution. Holding onto the GOLD stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2025. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful. From inception in 2012 through November, 2024, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,112.6%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +475.6%. Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2025. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential. See New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks
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