Blackstone Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for BX?

One of the largest alternative asset managers, Blackstone BX is slated to announce fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Jan. 30, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are likely to have increased on a year-over-year basis.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.Blackstone’s third-quarter 2024 earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from an increase in segment revenues and higher assets under management (AUM) balance. However, a rise in expenses was an undermining factor. Blackstone has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two, met in one and lagged in one of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.20%. Blackstone Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Blackstone Inc. price-eps-surprise | Blackstone Inc. QuoteBlackstone’s Q4 Earnings & Sales EstimatesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Blackstone’s earnings of $1.50 per share has been revised marginally lower over the past seven days. The figure indicates a jump of 35.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $3.82 billion, which suggests an increase of 50.8%.Major Factors to Note & Q4 Estimates for BlackstoneBlackstone has been witnessing increases in fee-earning AUM and total AUM on the back of its diversified product and revenue mix, superior position in the alternative investments space and net inflows. Given the high market volatility and increased client activity in the fourth quarter, Blackstone is expected to have recorded a rise in the AUM balance as inflows grew. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM of $1.13 trillion indicates growth of 8.8% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus estimate for total fee-earning AUM of $842.8 billion suggests a rise of 10.5%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total management and advisory fees (segment revenues) is pegged at $1.87 billion, which indicates a 13% increase. The consensus estimate for fee-related performance revenues (segment revenues) of $1.2 billion suggests a whopping surge from $169 million in the prior-year quarter.Additionally, Blackstone expects profits from deal exits to have been solid in the to-be-reported quarter. Per the company’s preliminary estimate, revenues from realization activities were more than $775 million between Oct. 1 and Dec. 23, 2024. The figure comprises 95% of realized performance revenues and 5% of realized principal investment income.  The consensus estimate for realized performance revenues and realized principal investment income is pegged at $670.8 million and $45.7 million, respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Blackstone generated $693.2 million of realized performance revenues and $19.2 million of principal investment income.Blackstone’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years mainly because of higher general, administrative and other expenses. As the company has continued to invest in franchises, expenses are expected to have risen to some extent in the fourth quarter.What Our Model Predicts for BXAccording to our quantitative model, the chances of Blackstone beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Blackstone is -2.13%.Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.BX’s Peers Worth ConsideringHere are a couple of asset management stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:The Earnings ESP for Ameriprise Financial AMP is +1.73% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Jan. 29.Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP’s quarterly earnings has been revised marginally lower to $8.94.Federated Hermes FHI is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Jan. 30. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +2.85%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.FHI’s quarterly earnings estimates have been revised 1% lower over the past week.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Blackstone Inc. (BX): Free Stock Analysis Report Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP): Free Stock Analysis Report Federated Hermes, Inc. 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