Trump tariffs offer perfect window for buying platinum shares

PLATINUM shares took a beating on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on Thursday following imposition of global tariffs by US president Donald Trump and triggering different responses from analysts over what happens next.The share price reaction was “perfectly validated”, according to Adrian Hammond of Standard Bank SBG Securities. But Noah Capital analyst Rene Hochreiter described the situation as “today was a perfect buying opportunity in platinum shares”.Impala Platinum (Implats) ended the day 8.5% down while both Anglo Platinum and Northam were about 7% lower despite platinum group metals (pgm) being excluded from the new tariff structures.According to the Minerals Council PGMs were specifically excluded along with coal, gold and manganese. The Council pointed out that PGMs accounted for 76.3% of total South African mineral and precious metals exports to the US worth R65.3bn in 2024.Speaking at the 2025 PGMs Industry Day conference held in Johannesburg on Thursday, Hammond said: “You are talking about lower growth output. It’s as simple as that. They (the US) are heavily reliant on platinum and palladium. They would never tariff that directly because it would hurt them.“The tariffs are directed to end products. Say US autos decline 10% this year because of the impact on higher prices then you are talking 200,000 ounces to 250,000 oz of palladium. That’s meaningful but the bigger picture is what is GDP growth like for the rest of the world and how does that impact auto sales.“Everything is down except gold so perhaps that’s something we should be buying.”Hochreiter’s assessment was that “the surplus rhodium stocks are gone. The platinum shares are likely to bumble along until the surplus surface stocks of platinum and palladium are gone and then – a year or two out – you are going to see a big upward reaction in the share prices.”Given the grim fundamentals facing the platinum producers their shares have been surprisingly strong over the past year.  Implats jumped 84% from a low of R70.35 to a high of nearly R130 in late March before pulling back while Northam bounced 72% from a low of R88.87 to a high of R152.86 also before retreating.A year ago at the 2024 conference, Hammond described then emerging price strength in platinum shares as “purely speculative” because “nothing fundamental has changed”.At this year’s conference Hammond acknowledged that “year to date the shares have run quite hard. There’s a couple of reasons driving that but, you know, to be honest there’s a bit of FOMO (fear of missing out). Investors missed out on the price cycle so, whether you understand what you are doing or not, you might decide to buy the share”.Hammond also cited “gold linkage” as a positive factor along with the “EV narrative” (lower than expected demand for battery-powered vehicles) and, in particular, the sharp drop in secondary supply of platinum.“Things are getting interesting but the tough job is to call the pinch point. It looks like the destocking cycle is starting to take a turn, but I am not entirely convinced yet.”Hochreiter commented a major reason some of the platinum producers had held up over the past year was the strength in prices of the secondary metals they produced such as nickel, copper and, in particular, chrome.“Northam Platinum would have been making losses last year were it not for its chrome sales.” He also believed that the platinum stocks had been heavily oversold which, by itself, would have attracted investors to buy the shares looking for a recovery.The post Trump tariffs offer perfect window for buying platinum shares appeared first on Miningmx.Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com