Will Record Vehicle Deliveries Help Tesla Report Q4 Earnings Beat?

Tesla TSLA is slated to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 29, after the closing bell. The results will primarily center around the company’s vehicle deliveries and automotive profit margins. See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.TSLA missed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and surpassed once, the average surprise being 0.13%. Before we delve into the factors that are set to shape its upcoming results, here’s a snapshot of its third-quarter 2024 earnings report.Tesla’s Q3 HighlightsIn the third quarter of 2024, the electric vehicle (EV) titan reported earnings per share of 72 cents, which rose from the year-ago figure of 66 cents and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents. Total revenues came in at $25.18 billion, witnessing year-over-year growth of 7.2%. The top line, however, missed the consensus mark of $25.57 billion.Tesla’s third-quarter production totaled 469,796 units (443,668 Model 3/Y and 26,128 other models), up 9.1% year over year. The company delivered 462,890 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 6.4%. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 439,975 vehicles, up 5% from the year-ago period. Deliveries of the other models totaled 22,915 units, up 43.3% year over year.Tesla had cash/cash equivalents of $33.6 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $5.4 billion, up from $2.86 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023. The company generated FCF of $2.7 billion during the reported quarter, which rose from $848 million generated in the year-ago period.Robust Q4 Deliveries to Aid TSLAThe company delivered 495,570 units during the fourth quarter, achieving a new record. The delivery numbers rose 2.3% and 7% on a yearly and sequential basis, respectively. However, it missed our model projection of 517,043 units.Tesla’s Model 3 and Y are the company’s most successful EVs, accounting for most of its sales. During the quarter, Tesla delivered 471,930 of those, up 2.3% year over year. Deliveries of other models rose to 23,640 units, up 3% year over year.Fueled by the delivery surge, our forecasts imply 4.5% year-over-year growth in automotive revenues, projecting the metric to reach $21.56 billion.We expect the company’s margins to improve year over year amid declining production cost per vehicle. Automotive gross margin (excluding leasing) is projected at 18.4% compared with 18.3% recorded in the year-ago period.Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections of TeslaThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share, indicating growth of 4.23% on a year-over-year basis. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down by 2 cents over the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27.50 billion for sales indicates a 9.28% rise on a year-over-year basis.Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla, as it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.68% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.Other Favorable Combinations in the Auto SpaceGeneral Motors Company GM has an Earnings ESP of +2.85% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. It is scheduled to post fourth-quarter earnings tomorrow. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.75 per share. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.GM exceeded earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.54%.PACCAR Inc PCAR has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is slated to post fourth-quarter 2024 earnings tomorrow. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.68 per share. PCAR surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 7.02%.Lear Corporation LEA has an Earnings ESP of +7.86% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to post fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.44 per share. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 5.89%.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report PACCAR Inc. (PCAR): Free Stock Analysis Report General Motors Company (GM): Free Stock Analysis Report Lear Corporation (LEA): Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks