Why Is Hologic (HOLX) Down 4.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Hologic (HOLX). Shares have lost about 4.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hologic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. Hologic Beats Q1 Earnings EstimatesHologic, Inc.  reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.03 in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, up 5.1% year over year. The metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.9%.The adjustments include charges and benefits related to the amortization of acquired intangible assets, restructuring and integration/consolidation costs and many others. The company’s GAAP earnings per share was 87 cents in the quarter compared with $1.03 in the year-ago period.Revenues totaled $1.02 billion in the quarter, up 0.9% year over year (up 1% at the constant exchange rate or CER). Meanwhile, the top line came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.HOLX’s Q1 Revenues by RegionIn the fiscal first quarter, U.S. revenues totaled $757.9 million, an increase of 0.6% year over year. This topped our model’s projection of $769 million.International revenues amounted to $263.9 million, up 1.7% year over year and up 2.1% at CER. Our model’s projection was $257.8 million.HOLX’s Segmental Breakdown of Q1 RevenuesDiagnosticsRevenues in the segment increased 5.1% year over year (up 5.2% at CER) to $470.6 million in the quarter under review. Excluding COVID-19 revenues, Diagnostics revenues increased 9% on a reported basis. This compares with our model’s segmental projection of $455.2 million.Within the division, Cytology & Perinatal revenues of $125.4 million rose 4.7% at CER. This compares with our model’s segmental projection of $122.7 million.Molecular Diagnostics revenues of $341.1 million increased 6.7% at CER. Our model’s projection was $327.6 million.Blood Screening revenues of $4.1 million fell 48.8% year over year at CER. Our model forecast for the business was $5 million.Breast HealthThe segment’s revenues decreased 2.3% from the year-ago period (down 2.1% at CER) to $369.1 million due to the lower sales of mammography capital equipment. Our model projected revenues of $392.6 million for this segment.Excluding the divested SSI and acquired Endomagnetics businesses, Breast Health revenues decreased 5.9% or 5.8% year over year at constant currency.GYN SurgicalThe business reported a 2.5% year-over-year (same at CER) increase in revenues to $166.3 million. Our model projected revenues of $164.5 million in this segment.Skeletal HealthRevenues declined 37.8% year over year (down 37.4% at CER) to $15.8 million. Our model projected revenues of $14.4 million for this segment.Hologic’s Operational UpdateIn the fiscal first quarter, the company-provided adjusted gross margin increased 80 basis points (bps) to 61.6% due to a favorable product mix.The company’s adjusted operating margin was 29.4%, an expansion of 90 bps, primarily due to a higher gross margin.HOLX’s Financial UpdateHologic ended the first quarter of fiscal 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.78 billion compared with $2.16 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 fourth quarter. Total long-term debt (including the current portion) was $2.53 billion compared with $2.50 billion at the fourth-quarter end.Net cash provided by operating activities at the end of the fiscal first quarter was $189.3 million compared with $220 million a year ago.Hologic Updates Full-Year Guidance, Shares Q2 ViewFor fiscal 2025, the company projects revenues in the band of $4.05-$4.10 billion (previously $4.15-$4.20 billion), up 0.5%-1.7% (earlier 3%-4.2%) year over year. Growth at CER is now projected at 1.3%-2.5% and (0.2%)-1% organically. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $4.16 billion.Hologic continues to expect fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $4.25-$4.35, with projected growth of 4.2-6.6% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $4.28 per share.For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company forecasts revenues between $995 million and $1.01 billion, suggesting year-over-year declines of 2.2%-1.3% as reported, 1.3%-0.3% at CER and 2.9%-1.9% organically. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.04 billion.Adjusted earnings per sharefor the second quarter is estimated between $1.00 and $1.03, which implies a 2.9% decrease to flat growth year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric currently stands at $1.05.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.VGM ScoresAt this time, Hologic has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Hologic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2025. 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