Can AIG Navigate Through Lower Premiums in Q4 Earnings?

American International Group, Inc. AIG is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 11, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) is currently pegged at $1.26 on revenues of $6.8 billion.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has been revised downward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues and earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 46.8% and 27.9%, respectively.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s revenues is pegged at $27 billion, implying a decline of 0.3% year over year. The consensus mark for current-year EPS is pegged at $6.45, implying a jump of around 30.3% on a year-over-year basis.AIG beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, missing once, with the average surprise being 2.9%, as you can see below.American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. QuoteQ4 Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but this is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: American International has an Earnings ESP of -1.58%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate currently is $1.27 per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: AIG currently has a Zacks Rank of 3.Now, let’s see how things have shaped up before the fourth-quarter earnings announcement.More Q4 Key EstimatesNet premiums earned in the General Insurance segment are expected to have improved 16.1% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter. The Global Commercial business is expected to have benefited from new business growth and solid retention in the fourth quarter. International commercial and personal businesses are expected to have benefited from new business growth and growth in personal autos. However, for the fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted pre-tax income indicates a decrease of 10.7% from the year-ago period.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio for total General Insurance is pegged at 92%, up from 89.1% in the year-ago period. This is likely to have affected the bottom line, making an earnings beat uncertain. For the fourth quarter, the expense ratio is pegged at 31.9%, down from 32.6% a year ago. However, this might have provided some respite in the to-be-reported quarter.Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total premiums indicates a 30% decrease from the year-ago period. This is expected to have impacted AIG’s top line in the fourth quarter, leading to a year-over-year decline.Stocks That Warrant a LookWhile an earnings beat looks uncertain for American International, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. CCAP has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Crescent Capital’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 56 cents per share, which has remained stable over the past month. The consensus estimate for CCAP’s revenues is pegged at $47.01 million.Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. AOMR has an Earnings ESP of +1.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Angel Oak’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 196.2% improvement from a year ago. The consensus mark for AOMR’s revenues signals 22.2% growth year over year.American Homes 4 Rent AMH has an Earnings ESP of +1.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Homes’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 45 cents per share, indicating a 4.7% increase from the year-ago period. AMH beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and met once, with an average surprise of 2.3%.Free Today: Profiting from The Future’s Brightest Energy SourceThe demand for electricity is growing exponentially. At the same time, we’re working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels like oil and natural gas. Nuclear energy is an ideal replacement.Leaders from the US and 21 other countries recently committed to TRIPLING the world’s nuclear energy capacities. This aggressive transition could mean tremendous profits for nuclear-related stocks – and investors who get in on the action early enough.Our urgent report, Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback, explores the key players and technologies driving this opportunity, including 3 standout stocks poised to benefit the most.Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report American International Group, Inc. (AIG): Free Stock Analysis Report American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): Free Stock Analysis Report Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. (CCAP): Free Stock Analysis Report Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc. (AOMR): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks