Apple Inc. (AAPL) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Apple (AAPL) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.Shares of this maker of iPhones, iPads and other products have returned +7.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change. The Zacks Computer - Micro Computers industry, to which Apple belongs, has gained 10.6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.Apple is expected to post earnings of $1.61 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.1%.The consensus earnings estimate of $7.28 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +7.9%. This estimate has changed -1.4% over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.20 indicates a change of +12.8% from what Apple is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -1.5%.Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Apple is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Apple, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $93.76 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +3.3%. For the current and next fiscal years, $406.74 billion and $440.31 billion estimates indicate +4% and +8.3% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryApple reported revenues of $124.3 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. EPS of $2.40 for the same period compares with $2.18 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $124 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.24%. The EPS surprise was +1.69%.The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Apple is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Apple. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone.See Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks