Williams-Sonoma Stock Before Q4 Earnings: To Buy or Not to Buy?

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. WSM is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on March 19, before market open.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.In third-quarter fiscal 2024, Williams-Sonoma reported earnings that exceeded expectations, reflecting strong operational execution despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company achieved earnings per share (EPS) of $1.96, surpassing estimates by 11.4%, and revenue of $1.80 billion, which, although reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year decline, still outperformed industry trends. The company also demonstrated strong profitability, with an operating margin of 17.8%, reflecting an 80-basis-point (bps) improvement from the previous year. These results were driven by a mix of factors, including supply chain efficiencies, cost management, and strategic inventory positioning. The business-to-business (B2B) segment grew, hitting its highest-ever quarterly performance.WSM, a multi-channel specialty retailer of premium quality home products, has an impressive track record of surpassing earnings expectations, exceeding the consensus mark in each of the last four quarters. The average surprise over this period is 17.8%, as shown in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow Are Estimates Placed for WSM?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter EPS has increased over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below. The estimated figure indicates 7% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus mark for revenues is $2.34 billion, indicating a 2.5% year-over-year increase.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat the Zacks Model Unveils for Williams-SonomaOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for WSM this time around. The company possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.Earnings ESP: WSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.02%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Influencing Williams-Sonoma’s Q4 PerformanceWilliams-Sonoma is expected to report a strong quarter fueled by improving industry trends and resilient consumer demand during the holiday season. While we anticipate an earnings beat in the fiscal fourth quarter, macroeconomic uncertainty and lingering industry softness are headwinds.WSM’s business is well-positioned for the holiday shopping season, benefiting from an improved demand environment. Home furnishings and decor, which account for about 50% of WSM’s sales mix, are expected to have witnessed stronger growth compared to furniture peers.Key competitors, including Wayfair Inc. W and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. ETD, have also reported sequential improvements in their quarterly performance, highlighting increased competition.Nonetheless, WSM’s solid operating model, comprising full-price selling, supply-chain efficiencies and top-tier customer service, is expected to have partly offset headwinds in its fiscal fourth-quarter results. The multi-channel, multi-brand platform, strong e-commerce growth, solid execution of strategic initiatives, digital leadership, product innovation, retail transformation and operational excellence across businesses are expected to have somewhat contributed to Williams-Sonoma’s net sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Also, cross-brand initiatives are expected to have positively contributed to consolidated comps to some extent. The company’s ongoing focus on full-price selling and lower promotional intensity should support profitability.The B2B segment continues to be a major growth driver, with significant expansion in the hospitality and corporate gifting markets. Additionally, global expansion in Canada, Mexico, India, and the UK is expected to drive future revenue growth.Overall, our model predicts comparable sales to contract by 1.2% in the fiscal fourth quarter. This decline is an improvement from the 2.9% decrease recorded in the prior quarter and 6.8% in the prior year, depicting some stabilization in consumer demand.From the company’s overall margin perspective, while WSM is navigating a tough retail environment, its strategic emphasis on product value, margin management, and selective advertising is expected to have mitigated some risks in the quarter.Our model projects the company's gross margin to show a 120-bps expansion to 47.2% from a year ago, driven by supply chain efficiencies that offset increased marketing expenses.Other EstimatesKey business segments are experiencing varied performances. We expect Pottery Barn Kids and Teen’s comps to be up 3.5%. The same had declined 2.5% a year ago. In the third quarter of fiscal 2024, comps were positive 3.8%.Our model predicts Pottery Barn’s comps to decline 4.9% year over year. The same declined 9.6% a year ago. In the third quarter of fiscal 2024, comps were negative 7.5%.Our model predicts West Elm’s comps to decline 1% year over year. The metric witnessed a 15.3% decline a year ago and a 3.5% decline in the last reported quarter.We expect the namesake brand’s comps to be up 1.5% year over year. The metric witnessed 1.6% growth a year ago and a decline of 0.1% in the previously reported quarter.Williams-Sonoma Stock Price Performance & ValuationWSM stock has lost 9.6% compared with the  Zacks Retail - Home Furnishings industry’s 10.4% decline in the year-to-date (YTD) period.The company has also broadly outperformed its peer company, such as Wayfair (down 28.1% YTD), but underperformed Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (HVT, down 5.1%) and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (down 4.2%).WSM’s YTD Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment Research Let's assess the value WSM offers to investors at its current levels.Presently, WSM is trading at a discount to the industry average, as shown in the chart below.Investors are also encouraged by Williams-Sonoma’s impressive trailing 12-month Return on Equity (ROE) of 51.6%. Such a high ROE reflects the company’s efficient use of shareholder funds, reinforcing confidence in its ability to generate profits.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thoughts: Buy, Sell or Hold WSM Stock?Williams-Sonoma's fiscal fourth quarter is expected to have reflected the company’s strong profitability, driven by operational efficiencies and disciplined pricing strategies. Williams-Sonoma has established itself as a prominent e-commerce retailer in the United States, with approximately 66% of its sales derived from online platforms. This figure is anticipated to increase to 70% over time. The company is making significant investments in its digital strategy to improve e-commerce and supply chain efficiency.Additionally, the company's B2B segment is performing well, particularly in sectors such as hospitality, sports, and entertainment, which are less dependent on housing market trends.However, risks such as low consumer confidence, housing market fluctuations, and economic uncertainty could impact the company. Owing to market volatility, investors may wish to wait for clearer signs of performance stability and favorable market conditions, particularly monitoring the upcoming earnings call on March 19, before considering an investment.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM): Free Stock Analysis Report Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (HVT): Free Stock Analysis Report Wayfair Inc. (W): Free Stock Analysis Report Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETD): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks