Why Is Murphy USA (MUSA) Down 10.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA). Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Murphy USA’s Q4 Earnings Beat EstimateMurphy USA announced fourth-quarter 2024 earnings per share of $6.96, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.43. The outperformance was primarily due to relatively strong merchandise sales.However, the company’s bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of $7 due to tepid petroleum product sales.Murphy USA’s operating revenues of $4.7 billion fell 7.1% year over year and missed the consensus mark by $169 million.Revenues from petroleum product sales came in at $3.6 billion, well below our estimate of $4.1 billion and down 9.6% from the fourth quarter of 2023. On the other hand, merchandise sales, at $1.1 billion, rose 3.2% year over year.Key TakeawaysMUSA’s total fuel contribution fell 1% year over year to $389.1 million on lower retail contribution and margin contraction. Total fuel contribution (including retail fuel margin plus product supply and wholesale results) came in at 32.5 cents per gallon, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2023.Retail fuel contribution decreased 8% year over year to $345.8 million as margins narrowed to 28.9 cents per gallon from 31.1 cents in the corresponding period of 2023. Retail gallons declined 1% from the year-ago period to 1,196.8 million in the quarter under review and missed our estimate of 1,210 million. Volumes on an SSS basis (or fuel gallons per store) deteriorated 1.8% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to 233.6 thousand.Contribution from Merchandise increased 5.6% to $208.8 million on higher sales and a rise in unit margins from 19.4% a year ago to 19.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. On an SSS basis, total merchandise contribution increased 2.4% year over year, primarily on the back of 4.7% higher nicotine margins. Meanwhile, merchandise sales increased 1.5% on an SSS basis, again mostly due to an increase in nicotine sales.The company’s monthly fuel gallons fell 2.4% from the prior-year period, though merchandise sales increased 2% on an average per store monthly basis.Balance SheetAs of Dec. 31, Murphy USA — which opened 22 new retail locations in the quarter and closed five outlets to take its store count to 1,757 — had cash and cash equivalents of $47 million and long-term debt (including lease obligations) of $1.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 68.6%.During the quarter, MUSA bought back shares worth $126.2 million. How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.The consensus estimate has shifted -14.37% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Murphy USA has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2025. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful. From inception in 2012 through November, 2024, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,112.6%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +475.6%. Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2025. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential. See New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks