Why Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 11.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG). Shares have lost about 11.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.Harley Q4 Earnings Miss ExpectationsHarley-Davidson reported a loss of $2.44 per share in fourth-quarter 2025, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 92 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 93 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The motorcycle manufacturer generated consolidated revenues (including motorcycle sales and financial services revenues) of $496 million, down 28% from the prior-year quarter.Segmental HighlightsHarley-Davidson Motor Company: Total revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment, constituting the bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, fell 10% on a year-over-year basis to $379 million and missed our forecast of $527 million on lower-than-expected motorcycle shipments. Motorcycle shipments worldwide decreased 4% to 13,500 units and missed our estimate of 20,845 units. In the quarter under review, revenues from the sale of motorcycles came in at $194 million, down 16% year over year. The segment incurred an operating loss of $260 million, wider than the operating loss of $214 million in the corresponding quarter of 2024.During the reported quarter, Harley-Davidson retailed 25,300 motorcycle units globally, which declined 1% year over year but topped our expectations of 23,467 units. Its retail motorcycle units sold in North America increased 5% to 15,900. Sales in EMEA or Europe, the Middle East and Africa declined 24% year over year. Sales in the Asia Pacific fell 1% while sales in Latin America rose 10% year over year.Revenues from parts & accessories were down 1% from a year ago to $117 million, but beat our estimate of $100.5 million. Revenues from apparel fell 13% year over year to $47 million and fell short of our forecast of $48.7 million.Harley-Davidson Financial Services: Revenues for Harley-Davidson Financial Services totaled $106 million. The figure declined 59% year over year. Operating income fell 277% to $82 million.LiveWire: During the reported quarter, the total shipment for LiveWire was 381 units, rising 61% from the year-ago quarter levels. Revenues rose 9% to $11 million but missed our estimate of $14.6 million. Operating loss narrowed from $26 million to $18 million. The reported loss was slightly wider than our projection of a loss of $17.6 million.Financial PositionIn the fourth quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit increased to $229.7 million from $210.5 million in the year-ago quarter. The company paid dividends of 18 cents per share. The company repurchased $347 million worth of shares on a discretionary basis in the fourth quarter of 2025.Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $3.1 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. The long-term debt decreased to $1.65 million from $4.47 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2024.2026 GuidanceFor 2026, the company expects HDMC global motorcycle retail sales in the range of 130,000-135,000 units compared with 132,500 in 2025. HDMC's operating income is projected in the range of a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit compared with the operating loss of $29 million incurred in 2025. HDFS' operating income is estimated in the range of $45-$60 million compared with the operating income of $490 million in 2025. Harley expects LiveWire's operating loss to be in the range of $70- $80 million compared with the operating loss of $75 million incurred in 2025. The company expects capital expenditure in the range of $175-$200 million compared with $153.7 million in 2025.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.The consensus estimate has shifted -71.33% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Harley-Davidson has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks