Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.Shares of this server technology company have returned -10.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.9% change. The Zacks Computer- Storage Devices industry, to which Super Micro belongs, has lost 14.6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.Super Micro is expected to post earnings of $0.52 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -22.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +18.8%.For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.55 points to a change of +15.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +17.2%.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.33 indicates a change of +30.6% from what Super Micro is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +13.9%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for Super Micro.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSRevenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.In the case of Super Micro, the consensus sales estimate of $5.34 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +38.6%. The $23.79 billion and $34.87 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +59.2% and +46.6%, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySuper Micro reported revenues of $5.68 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +54.9%. EPS of $0.61 for the same period compares with $0.56 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.65 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.5%. The EPS surprise was +1.67%.Over the last four quarters, Super Micro surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Super Micro is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Super Micro. However, its Zacks Rank #2 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockIt's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks