SipSource Q4 2024 Forecast Achieves Remarkable Accuracy, Validating Predictive Power
WASHINGTON, Feb. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America's (WSWA) SipSource forecasting report continues to demonstrate unparalleled accuracy, with its 2024 predictions achieving 94% accuracy for the headline All Core Spirits forecast (excluding RTDs). The forecast has demonstrated over 80% accuracy across all eight class-level forecasts, with four of the eight classes exceeding 90% accuracy. This effectiveness reinforces that the quality of SipSource data combined with data science expertise from partners at Kearney has created the most reliable predictor of market trends in the spirits industry.
Among the standout performances from the most recent forecast update released in Q3 2024:
- All Core Spirits were projected to end 2024 at -4.57% rolling 12-month growth, coming in at -4.31% (94% accuracy).
- Brandy/Cognac was projected to end at -9.20%, with actual results at -9.19% (99.9% accuracy).
- U.S. Whiskey was projected at -5.57%, with actual performance at -5.04% (90% accuracy).
- Tequila was projected at 1.91% growth, closing at 1.68% growth (87% accuracy).
Proven Long-Term Accuracy
SipSource has not only delivered exceptional short-term forecasting but has also maintained high accuracy in long-term predictions. The Q1 2024 forecast for all core spirits for the entire year has remained 93% accurate, demonstrating the tool's consistency and reliability in anticipating industry shifts.
2025 Outlook: Trends and Challenges
- Tequila's Growth Faces Uncertainty: Tequila remained a bright spot throughout 2024, but 2025 projections indicate potential volatility, particularly if new tariffs are introduced.
- U.S. Whiskey & Vodka Set to Outperform Core Spirits: These categories are expected to outpace the broader market in 2025, driven by resilience in Price Tiers 3 and 4, where consumer preferences are shifting toward "affordable luxury."
- Challenging Outlook for Rum, Cognac & Scotch: Near double-digit declines are forecasted across these categories by the end of 2025, with volume reductions anticipated across all price tiers.
"The latest results reaffirm SipSource as the industry's most precise forecasting tool, equipping wholesalers, suppliers, and retailers with the data-driven insights necessary to navigate an evolving market," saidMichael Bilello, Executive Vice President, Strategic Communications and Marketing. "As we look ahead to 2025, industry stakeholders must prepare for shifting consumer preferences and external economic pressures, including the potential impact of tariffs."
Additionally, today WSWA's SipSource released its highly anticipated 2024 Year-End Report, based off of its core data set, providing an in-depth analysis of year-ending market trends, disruptive category growth, and projections for 2025. The report highlights the evolving landscape of the wine and spirits sector amid economic pressures and shifting consumer preferences. READ MORE
To schedule a SipSource demo, email info@SipSource.com.
MEDIA CONTACT
Michael Bilello
michael@wswa.org | (202) 716-4805
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SOURCE Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America