Pre-Markets Seek Direction on Warmer Jobless Claims, Q4 Earnings

Thursday, January 23, 2025All major indexes began trading this early morning in the red, following three-straight up-days on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 (the small-cap Russell 2000 took a powder yesterday). But while the Dow has already crossed over into the green at this hour by +41 points, with the S&P close behind, the Nasdaq and Russell are sinking a tad lower.Even with the dip across the board going back a week and a half ago, where market participants grew concerned we may see no more rate cuts for the entire rest of 2025, we’re still up notably from Election Day in early November last year. As it’s still early, there is plenty of time for these indexes to ramp up from here; the question will soon be — if it isn’t already — whether near-term valuations are too high.Weekly Jobless Claims Tack Somewhat HigherWe’ve been tracking all labor market data closely going back a year or more — ever since economic data was forecasting a for-certain recession which has still yet to arrive — and we continue to see Initial Jobless Claims within a range of reasonably healthy. Last week, 223K new jobless claims were made, +2K higher than expected and +6K above the previous week’s unrevised tally. This is still obviously well below the outlier +260K we saw back in early October, which signaled a weakening labor market.Only a few times in the past few months have Continuing Claims approached 1.9 million for a week, and this morning’s print is one of them: 1.899 million came in two weeks ago (Continuing Claims are reported a week in arrears from Initial Claims), a big surge from the prior week’s 1.853 million. What we’ve seen, going back to late September — when longer-term claims moved up from the low 1.8 million range almost every week) is that this 1.9 million level is where we see resistance. If we break through that over the next couple reads, we may see ourselves in a new range of higher jobless claims.Q4 Earnings at a Glance: AAL, GEZacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated American Airlines AAL reported a big positive earnings surprise in its Q4 release this morning, with 86 cents per share well outperforming the 64 cents expected — and nearly 3x the 29 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $13.66 billion in the quarter outpaced expectations by +1.81%. However, shares are selling off -5% in today’s pre-market on a big guide lower for Q1 earnings, even as full-year earnings guidance remains in-line. For more on AAL’s earnings, click here.Check out the updated Zacks Earnings Calendar here.GE Aerospace GE, following the Q4 report from its spinoff GE Vernova GEV yesterday, soundly beat estimates on both top and bottom lines. Earnings of $1.32 per share surpassed the $1.03 Zacks consensus, while revenues of $9.88 billion surged past the $9.54 billion analysts were expecting. Full-year earnings guidance was also ratcheted up considerably, to $5.10-5.45 per share, and the stock is up +7% in the pre-market, now roughly +20% year-to-date.What to Expect from Thursday’s Stock MarketWe won’t be hearing from any Fed members the rest of the week, as they are currently in a “blackout period” ahead of the next FOMC meeting next week. On Wednesday of next week, we get the new Fed monetary policy statement, which will not bring about a move to the current +4.25-4.50% Fed funds rate. And no major economic reports are due after the opening bell.What we will see are more Q4 earnings reports after the close today, including Texas Instruments TXN, Da Vinci surgical systems provider Interactive Surgical ISRG and railroad major CSX CSX. We won’t get any of the big-time “Mag 7” stocks reporting earnings until next week.Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.1% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report GE Aerospace (GE): Free Stock Analysis Report Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Free Stock Analysis Report CSX Corporation (CSX): Free Stock Analysis Report Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG): Free Stock Analysis Report American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): Free Stock Analysis Report GE Vernova Inc. (GEV): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks