Oracle Up 18.4% in a Year: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Oracle Corporation ORCL has demonstrated strong performance over the past year, with shares appreciating 18.4% and outpacing the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 5.7% and the S&P 500's 8.8% gain, respectively. This growth stems from the company's strategic pivot toward cloud infrastructure and AI technologies, which has reshaped its business model and growth trajectory. The company recently announced robust third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with total revenues increasing 6% year over year to $14.1 billion, driven primarily by cloud services.Most notably, Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) have skyrocketed to $130 billion, up 63% in constant currency, reflecting substantial future revenue potential. Cloud services and license support revenues increased by 10% to $11.0 billion, while cloud infrastructure revenues surged 51% in constant currency.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORCL’s fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $57.12 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 7.86%. The consensus mark for fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.05 per share, down 2.7 over the past 30 days. The figure indicates year-over-year growth of 8.81%.Oracle Corporation Price and Consensus Oracle Corporation price-consensus-chart | Oracle Corporation QuoteFind the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.AI and Multi-Cloud MomentumOracle's strategic positioning in the AI ecosystem has become increasingly apparent. Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenues jumped 51% in constant currency, with GPU consumption for AI training growing 244% year over year. The company has secured significant deals with leading technology companies, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA and AMD.The recently announced Oracle AI Agent Studio further solidifies Oracle's AI credentials. This platform enables customers to create, extend, deploy, and manage AI agents across enterprise operations, building upon the 50+ AI agents already embedded within Oracle Fusion Applications. Available at no additional cost, this initiative could accelerate Oracle's competitive positioning in the enterprise AI market.Meanwhile, Oracle's multi-cloud strategy continues to gain traction. The company reported that its Database@Azure service is now available in 14 regions, with plans for 18 more in the next 12 months. Oracle chairman Larry Ellison noted that multi-cloud database revenues from Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL-owned Google and Amazon AMZN grew 92% in the last quarter alone, underscoring the success of this approach.Should Investors Hold or Wait?Despite positive cloud growth metrics, several factors suggest investors should exercise caution before adding to positions. Capital expenditures have accelerated significantly, with Oracle expecting fiscal 2025 CapEx to more than double year over year to around $16 billion. While necessary for supporting growth, this substantial spending will put pressure on free cash flow in the near term.The company's infrastructure buildout also faces potential constraints. Though Oracle crossed the milestone of 101 cloud regions, component delays have impacted cloud capacity expansion, with relief expected in the first quarter of 2026. These capacity limitations could temporarily cap revenue growth despite strong demand.Additionally, Oracle's valuation appears to be pricing in much of the anticipated growth. With shares trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.92, substantially above the Zacks Computer-Software industry average of 15.93, investors have a limited margin of safety should execution challenges arise.ConclusionORCL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). For current shareholders, holding positions seems prudent, given Oracle's strategic positioning in high-growth cloud and AI markets. However, prospective investors might benefit from patience, watching for either a more attractive entry point or further evidence that Oracle's ambitious cloud expansion is successfully converting the substantial backlog into sustainable revenue growth and margin improvement. 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