How Should You Play BlackBerry Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

BlackBerry Limited BB will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on April 2, before market open.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 2 cents per share, unchanged in the past 60 days. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported earnings of 3 cents per share.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBB has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 131.25%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 1 cent per share, unchanged over the past 60 days. In the previous fiscal year, the company had reported earnings of 5 cents per share. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $562 million, indicating a decline of 34.1% year over year.What Our Model Predicts for BB’s Q4Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BlackBerry this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.BB has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors to Focus Ahead of BB’s Q4 EarningsBB’s performance is expected to have benefited from strength in the automotive segment, particularly solid demand for its solutions across the advanced driver assistance systems market and digital cockpit domain. In January 2025, BlackBerry renamed its “IoT” division to “QNX” and relaunched the QNX brand to strengthen its presence in the automotive and embedded industries.Increasing traction for its next-generation version of QNX operating system SDP 8.0, as well as the QNX Cabin solution, augurs well. Strong revenues from royalties and development seat licenses are likely to have acted as tailwinds.The Secure Communications division performance is likely to have been driven by healthy uptake of the SecuSmart, UEM endpoint management and AtHoc critical events management solutions.In February 2025, BlackBerry sold its Cylance endpoint security assets to Arctic Wolf. Owing to Cylance sale, BB announced that it is “standing down” all previously provided guidance, related to cybersecurity and the overall guidance for the company. BB is now providing guidance only for the new Secure Communications division.BlackBerry expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenues to be in the $126-$135 million range. For the Secure Communications unit, revenues are estimated to be in the band of $62-$66 million. For the IoT business, revenues are expected to be in the range of $60-$65 million for the fiscal fourth quarter. Licensing & Other revenues are expected to be $4 million.BlackBerry Limited Price and EPS Surprise BlackBerry Limited price-eps-surprise | BlackBerry Limited QuoteFor fiscal 2025, revenues (from continuing operations) are now expected to be in the band of $517-$526 million. For the Secure Communications division, revenues are projected to be in the range of $267-$271 million.Revenues are now estimated to be in the band of $230-$235 million for the IoT business. Earlier, revenues from this segment were expected to be in the band of $225-$235 million.Extensive cost-cutting measures, including headcount reductions and facility closures, are likely to have cushioned margin and bottom-line performance. Given these measures, BB reported adjusted EBITDA (from continuing and discontinued operations) was $23 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, up from $18 million in the year-ago quarter. The company had expected adjusted EBITDA to be $0-$10 million. In addition, BlackBerry also achieved both positive operating and free cash flow of plus $3 million.For the quarter to be reported, BB expects adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations (following Cylance divestiture) to be in the range of $10 to $20 million and $60 to $70 million for fiscal 2025.However, the automotive industry is highly cyclical and has been affected by broader economic conditions, including supply-chain disruptions and fluctuating consumer demand. Significant delays in the ramp-up of automaker software development programs continue to remain an overhang on IoT revenues in the near term.BB Stock SoarsBB shares have skyrocketed 51.2% in the past six months, significantly outpacing the Computer Software industry’s, broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500 composite’s losses of 7.2%, 3.5% and 0.9%, respectively.Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBlackberry has also outperformed peers within the cybersecurity space, such as Fortinet FTNT and CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CRWD. Fortinet has gained 28.4%, while CrowdStrike is up 30.7% over the same time frame.BB Trades at a DiscountBB stock is trading at a discount, with a 12-month Price/book multiple of 3.26X compared with the Computer Software industry’s 7.63X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFortinet and CrowdStrike are trading at a 12-month Price/book multiple of 51.07X and 27.38X, respectively compared with the Security industry’s multiple 23.16X.BB’s Investment ConsiderationsThough the company's strategic pivot toward high-margin areas, such as IoT and Secure Communications, augurs well, there are several risks that could put downward pressure on the stock price. Its heavy reliance on cost-cutting measures to drive EBITDA, exposure to volatile markets like automotive and competitive pressures in cybersecurity remain concerns.Given these factors, investors should exercise caution and wait for a more favorable entry point. Investors holding BB stock should closely monitor the upcoming results to gauge how BlackBerry is executing on its strategic priorities.For now, holding BB stock remains the most prudent strategy, allowing investors to benefit from its growth prospects while navigating external risksZacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT): Free Stock Analysis Report BlackBerry Limited (BB): Free Stock Analysis Report CrowdStrike (CRWD): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks