Fastenal Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind

Fastenal Company FAST is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 17, before the opening bell.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.In the last reported quarter, Fastenal reported mixed results, with earnings meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate and net sales missing the same by 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the top line rose 3.5% while the bottom line remained flat.Fastenal’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters, met on two and missed on another occasion, with the average being 0.1%.Fastenal Company Price and EPS Surprise Fastenal Company price-eps-surprise | Fastenal Company QuoteTrend in Estimate Revision for FASTFor the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has remained unchanged at 48 cents over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates 4.4% growth from the year-ago level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.85 billion, indicating a 5% increase from the year-ago reported figure of $1.76 billion.Key Factors to Note for Fastenal's Q4Sales: Improving manufacturing markets are likely to contribute to the company’s top line. Although soft industrial activity remains a headwind, the company has several factors working in its favor that are expected to have driven its quarterly sales growth. These include a significant number of large customers, a strong digital strategy, a balanced mix of onsite and offsite services and market share gains across various product categories. Notably, a change in national account strategy is expected to contribute to the positives. Despite challenging market conditions, Fastenal's positive attributes are anticipated to have driven its growth.If we go by the latest monthly sales report, November’s average daily sales (ADS) grew 3.4% to $29.5 million, improving from 2.8% growth in October 2024.In terms of end markets/products/customers in November and October 2024, total manufacturing sales improved 11.2% (Heavy Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing) and 8% from the year-ago months, respectively. Non-residential construction declined 1.7% in November and 4.9% in October 2024. Fastener sales were up 0.1% in November and down 2% in October 2024. On the other hand, Safety sales increased 5.5% in November compared with 5.8% growth in October 2024. Other categories improved 5.2% in November and 5.1% in October 2024.Our model predicts Fastenal’s overall daily sales to be $29.4 million for the fourth quarter, indicating an increase of 3.4% from a year ago.Margins: The negative impact from the customer and product mix, higher import duties—particularly in Mexico—and reduced supplier rebates and lower product purchases are likely to have been headwinds. Additionally, rising employee and occupancy-related expenses are likely to have further hindered bottom-line growth.Per our model, the gross margin for the quarter is expected to be 44.7%, down from 45.5% in the year-ago figure. We expect total operating expenses to increase 1.8% to $453.7 million in the fourth quarter from a year ago.What the Zacks Model Unveils for FastenalOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FAST this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Currently, Fastenal carries a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some companies which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat on their respective quarters to be reported.Aspen Aerogels ASPN has an Earnings ESP of +53.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.ASPN’s earnings topped the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, with the average being 182.3%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 1,000% year over year.Advance Auto Parts AAP has an Earnings ESP of +13.32% and a Zacks Rank #3.AAP’s earnings missed the consensus mark in all of the last four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 119.8%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 145.8% year over year.Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK has an Earnings ESP of +12.67% and a Zacks Rank #1.DECK’s earnings beat the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, the average being 41.1%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 1.2% year over year.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockIt's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fastenal Company (FAST): Free Stock Analysis Report Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Free Stock Analysis Report Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP): Free Stock Analysis Report Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks