Fastenal Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind

Fastenal Company FAST is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 11, before the opening bell.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.In the last reported quarter, Fastenal’s earnings and net sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2% and 1.1%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the top line rose 3.7% while the bottom line remained flat.Fastenal’s earnings missed the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and met on other two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 1.5%.Fastenal Company Price and EPS Surprise Fastenal Company price-eps-surprise | Fastenal Company QuoteTrend in Estimate Revision for FASTFor the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has remained unchanged at 52 cents over the past 60 days. The estimated figure remains the same as the year-ago profit level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.94 billion, indicating a 2.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure of $1.9 billion.Key Factors to Note for Fastenal's Q1Sales: Improving manufacturing markets are likely to have contributed to the company’s top line. Although soft industrial activity remains a headwind, the company has several factors working in its favor that are expected to have driven its quarterly sales growth. These include a significant number of large customers, a strong digital strategy, a balanced mix of onsite and offsite services and market share gains across various product categories. Notably, a change in national account strategy is expected to have contributed to the positives. Despite challenging market conditions, Fastenal's positive attributes are anticipated to have driven its growth.If we go by the latest monthly sales report, February’s average daily sales (ADS) grew 5% to $31.4 million, improving from 1.9% growth in January 2025.In terms of end markets/products/customers in February and January 2025, total manufacturing sales improved 15.2% (Heavy Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing) and 6.7% from the year-ago months, respectively. Non-residential construction declined 6.7% in February and 3.6% in January. Fastener sales were up 0.6% in February but down 1.7% in January 2025. On the other hand, Safety sales increased 8.5% in February compared with 3.7% growth in January 2025. Other categories improved 6.8% in February and 3.5% in January 2025.Our model predicts Fastenal’s overall daily sales to be $30.8 million for the first quarter, indicating an increase of 4.1% from a year ago.Margins: The negative impact from the customer and product mix, higher import duties—particularly in Mexico—and reduced supplier rebates and lower product purchases are likely to have been headwinds. Additionally, rising employee and occupancy-related expenses are likely to have further hindered bottom-line growth.Per our model, the gross margin for the quarter is expected to be 45.3%, down from 45.5% in the year-ago figure. We expect total operating expenses to increase 2.5% to $483 million in the first quarter from a year ago.What the Zacks Model Unveils for FastenalOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FAST this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Currently, Fastenal carries a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some companies which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat on their respective quarters to be reported.BuildABear Workshop BBW has an Earnings ESP of +2.89% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.BuildABear’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed on other two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 3.1%. Earnings for BuildABear’s to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 6.4% year over year.Advance Auto Parts AAP has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank #3.Advance Auto Parts’ earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters and missed on other three occasions, with the average negative surprise being 29.7%. Earnings for Advance Auto Parts’ to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 214.9% year over year.CarMax KMX has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and a Zacks Rank #3.CarMax’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters and missed on other three occasions, with the average negative surprise being 0.4%. Earnings for CarMax’s to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 100% year over year.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. 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