Biogen Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Biogen BIIB will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 12, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 8.22%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.42 billion and $3.42 per share, respectively.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Factors to Consider for BiogenIn the fourth quarter, lower sales of multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs and spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have been offset by higher revenues from new drugs.Sales of Biogen’s MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri are likely to have declined amid rising competitive pressure in the market. Tecfidera sales have been declining as multiple generic versions of the drug have been launched in the United States, Brazil and certain EU countries.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $223.0 million and $206.7 million, respectively.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Tysabri are pegged at $394 million and $415.6 million, respectively.Sales of another MS drug Vumerity were hurt due to unfavorable channel dynamics in the United States in the third quarter. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the fourth quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Vumerity are pegged at $165.0 million and $177.8 million, respectively.Sales of Spinraza in the United States are likely to have been hurt by decreased demand amid competitive pressure. In the ex-U.S. markets, Spinraza sales declined in the third quarter due to unfavorable shipment timing in certain markets, loss of an annual tender in Russia and currency headwinds. However, the loss of the Russian tender is not expected to have had any impact in the fourth quarter.  It remains to be seen whether Spinraza sales improved in the fourth quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Spinraza are pegged at $416.0 and $430.6 million, respectively.The launch of Biogen’s newly launched drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia exceeded the company’s expectations, driven by increased demand globally. However, some ex-US reimbursement/pricing dynamics hurt sales in the third quarter. It remains to be seen if ex-U.S. sales improved in the fourth quarter.Zurzuvae’s launch also exceeded the company’s internal expectations backed by strong patient demand.Zurzuvae (zuranolone) was launched for postpartum depression in December 2023. Biogen has a collaboration with Sage Therapeutics SAGE for Zurzuvae. Biogen and Sage equally share profits and losses for the commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States. At the same time, in outside U.S. markets, Biogen records product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea) and pays royalties to Sage. Zurzuvae has not yet been approved in the EU.Sales of both Skyclarys and Zurzuvae are likely to have improved sequentially in the fourth quarter.Contract manufacturing and royalty revenues are expected to have declined in the quarter. Contract manufacturing and royalty revenues comprise Biogen’s 50% share of revenues (including royalties) from the collaboration with Eisai for new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi, and revenues from the manufacturing of Leqembi. Leqembi/lecanemab gained full approval from the FDA for early Alzheimer’s disease in the United States in July 2023.Leqembi sales improved sequentially in the third quarter, with the positive trend expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. Leqembi sales are recorded by Eisai. On the third-quarter conference call, Biogen said that Leqembi revenues in the United States, despite improving on a sequential basis, were below initial expectations. However, the rate of uptake in outside U.S. markets was encouraging, mainly in Japan. An update is expected on the fourth-quarter conference call. Leqembi was launched in South Korea and approved in Mexico in the fourth quarter. In the EU, the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use rendered a positive opinion recommending the marketing approval for Leqembi.Biosimilar revenues are expected to have been hurt by supply constraints for Imraldi and Benepali. In the fourth quarter, the European Commission granted approval for Opuviz, its biosimilar version of Regeneron’s Eylea.In the fourth quarter, SG&A costs are expected to have been seasonally higher than in the first three quarters of 2024.BIIB’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThe company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.99%, on average.Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise  Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. QuoteBiogen’s stock has declined 41.8% in the past year compared with a decrease of 11.0% for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Our Model Says for BIIBOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is -2.91%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.42 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $3.32 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks to ConsiderHere are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:Moderna MRNA has an Earnings ESP of +3.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.Moderna’s stock has declined 64.2% in the past year. MRNA beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. On average, MRNA delivered an earnings surprise of 72.65% in the last four quarters. Moderna is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 14.Intellia Therapeutics NTLA has an Earnings ESP of +7.98% and a Zacks Rank #2.Intellia Therapeutics’ stock has declined 67.7% in the past year. NTLA beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. On average, Intellia Therapeutics witnessed an earnings surprise of 4.02% in the last four quarters.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone.See Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Biogen Inc. (BIIB): Free Stock Analysis Report Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Free Stock Analysis Report Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (SAGE): Free Stock Analysis Report Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks