AbbVie Q4 Earnings Loom: Buy or Sell ABBV Stock Ahead of Results?

AbbVie ABBV is set to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Jan. 31, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $14.92 billion and $2.09 per share, respectively. The company’s earnings estimates for 2025 have declined from $12.27 per share to $12.17 in the past 30 days.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchABBV’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThe pharma giant’s performance has been pretty impressive, with its earnings exceeding expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.29%. In the last reported quarter, AbbVie reported an earnings surprise of 2.74%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Our Model Predicts for ABBVPer our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) have a goodchance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocksto buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Shaping ABBV’s Upcoming ResultsAbbVie’s top line in the fourth quarter is likely to have been driven by sales of newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Approvals in new indications must have been driving strong revenues for both these drugs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyrizi sales is pegged at $3.58 billion, while the same for Rinvoq is pinned at $1.72 billion. Our model estimates for Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales are pegged at $3.56 billion and $1.70 billion, respectively.ABBV lost patent protection for its blockbuster immunology drug Humira in the United States in January 2023 and has been facing sales erosion ever since. The drug lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories in 2018. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira sales is pegged at $1.94 billion, while our estimate for the same is pinned at $1.92 billion.We expect J&J JNJ-partnered Imbruvica sales to have declined due to competition from novel oral therapies. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the J&J-partnered drug’s sales are pegged at $806 million and $819 million, respectively.Roche RHHBY-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to have risen as new patient starts might have improved. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the Roche-partnered drug’s sales are pegged at $674 million each.Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters. Neuroscience sales are likely to have been driven by the depression drug Vraylar and new migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. In November, AbbVie gained approval for Vyalev, a transformative therapy for treating advanced Parkinson’s disease. Investors will look out for initial sales number for this new drug. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for neuroscience product sales are pegged at $2.47 billion and $2.49 billion, respectively.In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to have been negatively impacted by the sluggish growth for fillers in the United States and China. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.39 billion and $1.41 billion, respectively.Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold the stock.ABBV’s Stock Price Performance & ValuationShares of AbbVie have risen nearly 8% in the past year against the industry‘s 2% decline. While the stock has also outperformed the broader Medical sector, it has underperformed the S&P 500 Index. AbbVie’s shares are currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.ABBV Stock PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, AbbVie appears attractive relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 14.39 forward 12-month earnings value, lower than 16.00 for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOur Investment Thesis on ABBV StockAbbVie faces its share of headwinds like Humira biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and slow market growth trends for fillers in the United States and China. It also faced some key pipeline setbacks in 2024.However, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead.  Strong sales performance of drugs like Rinvoq, Skyrizi, Venclexta and Vraylar, coupled with significant contributions from newer drugs like Ubrelvy, Elahere, Epkinly and Qulipta, should keep driving the company’s top line.AbbVie is generating double-digit sales growth from its ex-Humira platform, which covers more than 80% of its total sales, exceeding the company’s expectations. Management has also been actively pursuing collaboration and partnership deals across several therapeutic areas to drive long-term growth and further strengthen its pipeline.Stay Invested in ABBV StockDespite its fair share of problems, a solid pipeline and the prospect of growth in sales and profits in 2025 are good enough reasons to stay invested in ABBV. Buying AbbVie stock at its present reasonable valuation may prove beneficial for long-term investors. Any major decline in the company’s share price could be an opportunity for long-term investors to add ABBV to their portfolio.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Roche Holding AG (RHHBY): Free Stock Analysis Report Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Free Stock Analysis Report AbbVie Inc. 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