Will Non-COVID Drugs Drive PFE's Top Line in Q4 Earnings?

Pfizer’s PFE non-COVID operational revenues improved in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel and Eliquis, new launches like Abrysvo and newly acquired products like Nurtec as well as those acquired from Seagen (December 2023). The trend is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter.In the past year, Pfizer’s stock has declined 0.2% compared with a decrease of 2.5% for the industry. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDrug Sales Estimates: Vyndaqel, Prevnar & EliquisVyndaqel/Vyndamax sales are likely to have benefited from continued demand growth, primarily in the United States and developed Europe.Sales of Prevnar family of vaccines declined in the last two quarters due to fewer adult vaccinations in the United States and lower pediatric indication sales in certain emerging markets and international developed markets. We expect these factors to have continued to hurt sales in the fourth quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate, as well as our model estimate, for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.52 billion.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.56 billion. Our model estimates Prevnar family vaccine sales to be $1.53 billion.In addition, alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support, driven by continued share gains in the oral anticoagulant market. However, sales are likely to have been hurt by generic competition in some international markets due to the loss of patent exclusivity.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.66 billion, while our model estimate is $1.61 billion.Expectations From PFE’s New Drugs & Seagen ProductsWe expect Pfizer’s several newly launched drugs like the RSV vaccine Abrysvo, Velsipity pill for ulcerative colitis, pentavalent meningococcal vaccine Penbraya and new gene therapies for hemophilia, Hympavzi (marstacimab) and Beqvez/Durveqtix to have contributed to top-line growth.While Abrysvo sales are expected to have been driven by international market expansion, its sales in the United States are expected to have been impacted by the revised recommendations for RSV vaccinations issued in June 2024 by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).The antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs, Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak, added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the Seagen acquisition in December 2023, boosted Pfizer’s oncology sales in the first three quarters of 2024. Pfizer has been particularly witnessing strong demand for Padcev.Among other acquired products, Nurtec sales are likely to have improved sequentially, driven by strong demand in the United States and launches in international markets. However, regarding another newly acquired drug, Oxbryta, in September, Pfizer announced that it is voluntarily withdrawing all lots of the sickle cell disease drug from all global markets where it is approved. Sales of Oxbryta are likely to have been minimal in the fourth quarter.PFE's COVID Products' Expected PerformanceThough sales of Pfizer’s COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, declined in the past few quarters it seems their sales have stabilized somewhat. Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.In the third quarter, direct sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty rose, driven by the favorable timing of stocking in the United States due to earlier-than-expected approval of the updated shot, partially offset by lower demand in international markets. Paxlovid revenues were also significantly higher than the year-ago levels, driven by strong demand in the United States backed by a recent COVID wave. Also, a one-time contractual delivery to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile led to sales growth. It remains to be seen if the positive trend continued in the fourth quarter.Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $3.13 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $540.6 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $3.27 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $589.0 million.PFE’s Zacks Rank & Stocks to ConsiderPfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently. A couple of better-ranked stocks are Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY and BioMarin BMRN, both carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus  Pfizer Inc. price-consensus-chart | Pfizer Inc. QuoteEstimates for Alnylam’s 2025 earnings have improved from a loss of 13 cents to earnings of 41 cents per share over the past 60 days. In the past year, Alnylam’s stock has risen 58.9%.Alnylam beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while matching the same once, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 65.67%.Estimates for BioMarin’s 2025 earnings have improved from $3.94 per share to $4.02 per share over the past 60 days. In the past year, BioMarin’s stock has declined 27.8%.BioMarin beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 28.70%.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 228 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2023 alone.See Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN): Free Stock Analysis Report BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks