Why Is Navient (NAVI) Up 7.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Navient (NAVI). Shares have added about 7.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Navient due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Navient Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, NII & Provisions Decline Y/YNavient has reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (excluding gain from the sale of Xtend Healthcare, provision for loan losses related to lowering the expected recovery rate on defaulted Private Education Loans and restructuring and regulatory-related expenses) of 28 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents. It reported 47 cents in the prior-year quarter.Results were driven by a rise in other income. A decline in provision for loan losses was another positive. However, a decrease in net interest income (NII) and a rise in expenses were headwinds.Navient’s GAAP net loss was $2 million against a net income of $79 million recorded in the prior-year quarter.Navient’s NII Declines, Expenses RiseNII declined significantly year over year to $140 million in the third quarter from $280 million. It missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $150.04 million.Total other income increased significantly year over year to $276 million from $131 million. The rise stemmed from a gain on the sale of a subsidiary.Provision for loan losses was $42 million, down 41.7% from the prior-year quarter.Total expenses increased 42.5% year over year to $342 million.NAVI’s Quarterly Performance of SegmentsFederal Education Loans: The segment generated a net income of $27 million, which declined 71.3% year over year.As of Sept. 30, 2024, the company’s net FFELP loans were $31.5 billion, down 4.3% sequentially.Consumer Lending: This segment reported a net income of $27 million, which decreased 51.8% from the year-ago quarter.The private education loan delinquency rate greater than 30 days was 5.3% compared with 4.7% in the prior-year quarter.As of Sept. 30, 2024, the company’s private education loans were $16 billion, which decreased 1.4% from the prior quarter. Navient originated $262 million of private education refinance loans in the reported quarter.Business Processing: Segmental net income of $178 million increased substantially from $9 million in the year-ago quarter.Navient’s LiquidityTo meet liquidity needs, Navient expects to utilize various sources, including cash and investment portfolio, predictable operating cash flows provided by operating activities, the repayment of principal on unencumbered education loan assets, and distributions from securitization trusts. It may also draw down on the secured FFELP Loan and Private Education Loan facilities, issue term asset-backed securities (ABS), enter additional Private Education Loan and ABS repurchase facilities, or issue additional unsecured debt.Notably, it had $1.14 billion of total unrestricted cash and liquid investments as of Sept. 30, 2024.Navient’s Capital Distribution ActivitiesIn the third quarter, the company paid out $17 million in common stock dividends.In the reported quarter, Navient repurchased shares of common stock for $33 million. As of Sept. 30, 2024, there was $176 million of the remaining share-repurchase authority.2024 OutlookCore EPS is expected to be $2.45-$2.50.FFELP segment NIM is expected to be in the mid-70s, while the Consumer  Lending segment NIM is likely to be in the low 300s.EBITDA margin is expected in the high teens.Adjusted Tangible Equity is anticipated to be above 80%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.The consensus estimate has shifted -34.55% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Navient has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Navient has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerNavient belongs to the Zacks Financial - Consumer Loans industry. Another stock from the same industry, Ally Financial (ALLY), has gained 12.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.Ally Financial reported revenues of $2.1 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.9%. EPS of $0.95 for the same period compares with $0.83 a year ago.For the current quarter, Ally Financial is expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share, indicating a change of +40% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.9% over the last 30 days.The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Ally Financial. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.Free Today: Profiting from The Future’s Brightest Energy SourceThe demand for electricity is growing exponentially. At the same time, we’re working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels like oil and natural gas. Nuclear energy is an ideal replacement.Leaders from the US and 21 other countries recently committed to TRIPLING the world’s nuclear energy capacities. 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