Why Is Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Down 12.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX). Shares have lost about 12.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Louisiana-Pacific due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Louisiana-Pacific Q4 Earnings Top, Sales Miss Amid OSB WeaknessLouisiana-Pacific reported dissatisfactory fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate but declining year over year. Net sales missed the consensus mark and tumbled year over year.Starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, the financial results of the LP South America (LPSA) segment have been reported under “Other.” This reclassification did not affect the company’s consolidated operating results or financial position. The “Other” category now includes our South American operations, along with additional products that are not individually material.Q4 Earnings and Revenue OverviewAdjusted earnings per share (EPS) of three cents topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss per share of six cents by 150% but declined 97.1% year over year from an adjusted EPS of $1.03.Consolidated net sales of $567 million missed the consensus mark of $603 million by 6% and declined 16.7% from the year-ago period’s $681 million. The decline stemmed from significantly lower OSB prices and reduced sales volumes.Segment PerformanceSiding: Net sales grew 6% year over year to $384 million, driven by higher sales volumes and selling prices. Segment adjusted EBITDA grew 33% to $97 million, reflecting the impacts of the net sales increase, including a favorable mix.OSB: Net sales declined 49% to $136 million due to lower pricing and volume. The segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $39 million, against a $50 million profit last year.Margins and Profitability MetricsGross profit dropped 47.5% year over year to $85 million, while gross margin compressed 880 basis points (bps) to 15%.Adjusted EBITDA declined to $50 million, down 60% from $125 million last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.8%, down 960 bps.Balance Sheet & Shareholder ReturnsAs of 2025, Louisiana-Pacific had cash and cash equivalents of $292 million compared with $340 million as of 2024. It had a total liquidity of $1.1 billion at the end of the year. As of Dec. 31, 2025, long-term debt stood at $348 million, flat year over year.During 2025, the company invested $291 million in capital expenditures, paid $78 million in dividends, and repurchased 0.6 million of LP's common shares for $61 million.Q1 & 2026 OutlookFor the first quarter, LP expects Siding net sales of between $350 million and $355 million (approximately down 12% year over year). Siding adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between approximately $80 million and $85 million (about 23% margin).OSB adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss of between $25-$30 million. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $50 million.For 2026, Louisiana-Pacific expects Siding net sales to be about $1.7 billion (nearly 2% year over year growth), with adjusted EBITDA expected to be about $450 million (nearly 26% margin). OSB adjusted EBITDA is expected to be breakeven. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $430 million.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.The consensus estimate has shifted -92.22% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Louisiana-Pacific has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Louisiana-Pacific has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 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Click to get this free report Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks