Why Is Antero Midstream (AM) Up 9.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Antero Midstream Corporation (AM). Shares have added about 9.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Midstream due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Antero Midstream Q3 Earnings Miss EstimatesAntero Midstream reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 23 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents. The bottom line remained flat year over year.Total quarterly revenues of $270 million were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top line increased from $264 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.The weak quarterly earnings can be attributed to decreased compression and low-pressure gathering volumes and higher total operating costs.Operational PerformanceAverage daily compression volumes were 3,269 million cubic feet (MMcf/d) compared with 3,271 MMcf/d in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure was lower than our estimate of 3,388 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the compression fee was 21 cents, which remained flat year over year.High-pressure gathering volumes totaled 3,046 MMcf/d, up from the year-ago level of 2,935 MMcf/d. The figure was also higher than our estimate of 2,953 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the average gathering high-pressure fee was 23 cents, higher than the year-ago quarter’s 21 cents. The reported figure also beat our estimate of 22 cents.Low-pressure gathering volumes averaged 3,277 MMcf/d compared with 3,323 MMcf/d a year ago.  The figure came in lower than our estimate of 3,366 MMcf/d. On a per-Mcf basis, the average gathering low-pressure fee was 36 cents, higher than the prior-year level of 35 cents. The reported figure was in line with our estimate.Freshwater delivery volumes were registered at 71 MBbls/d, down approximately 33% from the prior-year figure of 106 MBbls/d. On a per-barrel basis, the average freshwater distribution fee was $4.31 compared with $4.20 a year ago. The figure was also higher than our estimate of $4.22.Operating ExpensesDirect operating expenses amounted to $51.7 million, down from $51.9 million recorded a year ago.However, Antero Midstream’s total operating expenses totaled $107.4 million, up from $101.5 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2023.Balance SheetAs of Sept. 30, 2024, the company had no cash and cash equivalents. As of the same date, the company had $3,171.7 million of long-term debt.OutlookAntero Midstream has revised its 2024 guidance. It reduced its projection for net income and adjusted net income by $25 million and $15 million, respectively, to a range of $400-$420 million and $465-$485 million. This was due to a $10 million increase in interest expense from higher rates and refinancing costs. Other guidance remained unchanged.The capital budget for 2024 is expected to be in the $150-$170 million range, indicating a 14% decrease from the 2023 level at the midpoint.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted -11.11% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Antero Midstream has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Antero Midstream has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 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