Tractor Supply Pre-Q4 Earnings: Should You Buy Amid Positive Trends?

Tractor Supply Company TSCO is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, 2025, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.8 billion, indicating 3.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.The bottom line of the leading rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has been unchanged at 45 cents in the past 30 days, indicating a 2.2% decline from the year-ago reported figure.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $14.9 billion, indicating 2.5% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for 2024 earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at $2.05 per share. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a 1.5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.Tractor Supply has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Brentwood, TN-based company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%.Tractor Supply Company Price and EPS Surprise  Tractor Supply Company price-eps-surprise | Tractor Supply Company QuoteWhat the Zacks Model Unveils for TSCOOur proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.Key Factors to Influence TSCO’s Q4 ResultsTractor Supply’s quarterly performance is likely to have been supported by consistent market share growth and favorable customer trends. Strong demand for its core merchandise, including consumable, usable and edible products, has been a significant driver. The company's focus on tailoring its offerings to meet the daily needs of rural customers has played a key role in its success. Additionally, its everyday low-price strategy is expected to continue bolstering its performance in the fourth quarter.The ‘ONETractor’ strategy, which integrates in-store and online shopping, has been promising. Tractor Supply has also benefited from its Life Out Here Strategy and the Neighbor’s Club membership program, both of which likely contributed to sales in the to-be-reported quarter. The acquisitions of Orscheln Farm, and Home and Petsense stores are expected to have further aided the company’s performance.On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, the company highlighted a strong start to the fourth quarter, anticipating a more normalized winter and improved performance from the prior year. Regarding SG&A, management projected better results than the third quarter due to expectations around comparable sales.For 2024, Tractor Supply forecasts net sales between $14.85 billion and $15 billion, with comparable sales (comps) ranging from flat to 1% growth. The operating margin is projected at 9.8-10.1%, with net income expected between $1.09 billion and $1.12 billion, translating to EPS of $10.10-$10.40, with the mid-point being the most likely outcome.However, challenges have persisted. Higher depreciation and amortization costs, expenses from opening a distribution center, and cost inflation are likely to have been concerning. Growth investments and deleveraged fixed costs are also expected to have driven SG&A expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.Our model indicates a 5.9% year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses for the fourth quarter, with the SG&A expense rate rising 40 basis points to 23.8%. Depreciation and amortization expenses are expected to increase 12% year over year in the fourth quarter.Valuation & Price Performance of TSCO StockFrom a valuation perspective, the Tractor Supply stock trades at a premium relative to the industry. TSCO has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 26.12X, above the industry’s average of 18.5X. However, the company’s stock trades below the historical benchmarks, with a five-year high of 27.91X.The recent market movements show that TSCO shares have gained 5.1% in the past three months compared with the industry's 8.6% growth. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Other Stocks Poised to Beat on EarningsHere are a few companies that also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:Five Below FIVE has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. FIVE is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.4 billion, indicating 2.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The consensus estimate for Five Below’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.35 per share, implying an 8.2% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has moved up by a penny in the past seven days. FIVE has delivered an average earnings surprise of 39% in the trailing four quarters.Ulta Beauty ULTA currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2. ULTA is likely to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.5 billion, indicating a 2.6% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.The consensus estimate for ULTA’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.09 per share, down 12.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has moved up 0.4% in the past seven days. Ulta Beauty has delivered an average earnings surprise of 6.2% in the trailing four quarters.SharkNinja, Inc. SN currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SN’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, which suggests growth of 16.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.The consensus estimate for SharkNinja’s earnings has moved up by a penny in the past seven days to $1.25 per share. The consensus estimate for earnings implies growth of 33% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. SN has delivered an average earnings surprise of 11.8% in the trailing four quarters.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockIt's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Free Stock Analysis Report Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report SharkNinja, Inc. (SN): Free Stock Analysis Report Five Below, Inc. (FIVE): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks