Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Tesla (TSLA) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Over the past month, shares of this electric car maker have returned +47.5%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, which Tesla falls in, has gained 27%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.Tesla is expected to post earnings of $0.76 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +15.9%.For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.45 points to a change of -21.5% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +12%.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.18 indicates a change of +29.7% from what Tesla is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +4.3%.Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Tesla is rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Tesla, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $27.79 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +10.4%. For the current and next fiscal years, $99.62 billion and $115.29 billion estimates indicate +2.9% and +15.7% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryTesla reported revenues of $25.18 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.9%. EPS of $0.72 for the same period compares with $0.66 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $25.55 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -1.45%. The EPS surprise was +24.14%.Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Tesla is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Tesla. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.Free Report: 5 Clean Energy Stocks with Massive UpsideEnergy is the backbone of our economy. It’s a multi-trillion dollar industry that has created some of the world’s largest and most profitable companies.Now state-of-the-art technology is paving the way for clean energy sources to overtake “old-fashioned” fossil fuels. Trillions of dollars are already pouring into clean energy initiatives, from solar power to hydrogen fuel cells.Emerging leaders from this space could be some of the most exciting stocks in your portfolio.Download Nuclear to Solar: 5 Stocks Powering the Future to see Zacks’ top picks free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks