SM Energy Company (SM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

SM Energy (SM) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned +11% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.2% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which SM Energy belongs, has gained 7.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.92 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +23.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +4.5%.The consensus earnings estimate of $6.80 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +15.5%. This estimate has changed +4.9% over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.58 indicates a change of +11.5% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +5%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for SM Energy.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.In the case of SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate of $861.32 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +41.5%. The $2.74 billion and $3.35 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +15.4% and +22.3%, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $643.61 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +0.4%. EPS of $1.62 for the same period compares with $1.73 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $651.13 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -1.15%. The EPS surprise was +6.58%.The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.Free: 5 Stocks to Buy As Infrastructure Spending SoarsTrillions of dollars in Federal funds have been earmarked to repair and upgrade America’s infrastructure. In addition to roads and bridges, this flood of cash will pour into AI data centers, renewable energy sources and more.In, you’ll discover 5 surprising stocks positioned to profit the most from the spending spree that’s just getting started in this space.Download How to Profit from the Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Boom absolutely free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SM Energy Company (SM): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks