Lumber Prices and US Housing Starts Update: March 2025

VANCOUVER, BC, March 20, 2025 /CNW/ - Single-Family Housing Starts Hit A 12-Month High in February 2025.

Since 1952 Madison's Lumber Reporter has established itself as the most reliable source for North American lumber prices and industry news. By providing a true 360º perspective on all aspects of wood products' manufacturing, Madison'smakes you better equipped to anticipate other market conditions, like housing or energy.

This week is no different, so let's dive into the data:

• The Madison's Lumber Prices Index for the week ending March 14, 2025 was US$577 mfbm. This is down -1%, or -$4 from the previous week when it was US$581, and is up +13%, or +$66, from one month ago when it was US$511.
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• In the week ending March 14, 2025 benchmark softwood lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$550 mfbm, which is up +$15, or +3%, from the previous week when it was $535, and up +$68, or +14%, from one month ago when it was $483.
• Total US housing starts in February were 1.50 million units, up more than +11% from the revised 1.30 million units in January, and down almost -3% from February 2024 when it was 1.55 million units.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, in February were also more than +11% higher than January's 995,000 units, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.11 million units but fell -2% from a year ago when it was 1.13 million.

The number of starts and permits reached the long-term threshold of 1.5 million new homes needed annually to stabilize home prices.

Total US housing permits in February were down -1% to 1.46 million units, while Single-family permits were almost flat at 992,000 units.

Shrewd investors know that construction framing softwood lumber prices are a good leading indicator for US housing activity, including home building and home sales.  Don't miss out, get lumber price data updates directly to your desktop every Friday morning.

Weakness in 2022 and early 2023 had been in single-family starts, the weakness then moved to multi-family. Multi-family starts might have bottomed early in 2024.

The inventory of single-family housing under construction stayed flat at a rate of 640,000 units, still low compared to levels in 2021.

"Home builders picked up the pace of construction in February as improved weather in the South offered better conditions for housing starts," said Nationwide Economist Daniel Vielhaber. "Given the oscillating paces of starts in recent months due to hurricanes and harsh winter weather conditions, a natural pace for starts going forward in the current high-interest rate environment is likely somewhere in between the faster February pace and slower January pace."

February housing completions were 1.59 million units, down -6% compared to the same month in 2024 when it was 1.70 million units. The completions rate for single-family housing increased by more than +7% from January to 1.07 million units in February.

Looking closely at the lumber price history, compared to the same week last year, when it was US$452 mfbm, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) for the week ending March 14, 2025 was up +$98, or +22%.  Compared to two years ago when it was $365, that week's price was up +$185, or +51%, according to the latest data from Madison's Lumber Reporter.

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Madison's Lumber Reporter Weekly Summary: March 14, 2025

Framing Lumber:
Commodity prices to shipping timelines to overall supply were hard to pin down. Many experienced players hadn't seen lumber market conditions like this in careers spanning multiple decades.

KEY LUMBER PRICES AND MARKET CONDITIONS TAKE-AWAYS:

• The ongoing trade uncertainty caused hoarding among some Western S-P-F customers, while others cancelled orders due to sudden cost increases.
• Secondary suppliers hesitated to bolster their inventories as they usually do around this time of year.
• Prices and ship times varied wildly with each order, were solidified on a case-by-case basis.
• Buyer kept field inventories conspicuously thin, when they are usually adding volume for the spring buy.
• There was subpar availability of most Eastern S-P-F commodities, along with wildly variable commodity pricing.
• Transportation problems were rife across the continent; tightening equipment availability, delayed shipping timelines were reported in all regions.
• Southern Yellow Pine inventory holders with eight-plus weeks of stock on the ground had the bulk of that wood already sold.

Established in 1952, Madison's Lumber Prices is your premiere source for North American softwood lumber news, prices, industry insight, and industry contacts. The weekly Madison's Lumber Reporter publishes current Canadian and US construction framing dimension lumber and panel wholesaler pricing information 50 weeks a year and access to historical pricing as well.

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SOURCE Madison's Lumber Reporter