Eli Lilly Rises 7.5% YTD: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Eli Lilly and Company’s LLY shares dipped almost 5% on Monday after rival Novo Nordisk NVO announced disappointing data from a late-stage study on next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema.Top-line data from the phase III REDEFINE 2 study on Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema showed that treatment with the drug led to a weight loss of 15.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 3.1% with placebo in people with obesity and type II diabetes. However, the weight loss of 15.7% fell short of expectations as investors were probably expecting a more pronounced weight loss outcome at 68 weeks. Shares of Lilly declined as it is also investing actively in the popular obesity space.However, the company’s stock has risen 7.5% year to date. Shares of Lilly struggled a little in the second half of 2024 after a solid rise in 2023 and the first half of 2024. The primary reason for the stock’s correction in the second half of 2024 was disappointing sales of its popular GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, due to slower-than-expected growth.Nevertheless, investors were impressed with the company’s outlook for 2025 provided in February, particularly expectations for improvement in sales of Mounjaro/Zepbound. Lilly is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound will pick up in 2025 as it ramps up manufacturing capacity and through label and geography expansions.This led the stock to recover after the correction in the second half of 2024. Monday’s decline was a negative reaction to a rival’s news, from which we believe Lilly can recover in the coming days.Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play the stock after the price rise this year.Mounjaro & Zepbound: Key Top-Line Drivers for LillyLilly’s most popular products are its tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound became key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $16.5 billion in 2024, accounting for around 36% of the company’s total revenues.However, quarter-over-quarter growth of Zepbound and Mounjaro in 2024 was hurt by supply and channel dynamics. Slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics hurt sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the second half, raising concerns about moderating demand for these drugs.LLY’s Efforts to Drive Mounjaro & Zepbound SalesLilly is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound should pick up in 2025 as it launches the drugs in new international markets and ramps up manufacturing in the first half of the year.  Since 2020, Lilly has committed more than $50 billion for manufacturing capacity for Zepbound and Mounjaro in the United States and Europe.Lilly expects to launch Mounjaro in new markets outside of the United States and Europe throughout 2025. The launch of Mounjaro in new international markets is expected to contribute to the drug’s sales growth in the second half of the year.  Last month, Lilly announced that it is reducing prices of 7.5 mg and 10 mg doses of Zepbound for customers paying through a new self-pay program. The lowered price can improve access to the medicine.Following suit, NVO also announced that it is offering its obesity drug, Wegovy, at a discounted price of $499 per month to patients who do not have insurance coverage and pay by cash, which is less than half of its listed price.The FDA also removed Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines from its shortage list in December 2024 and NVO’s semaglutide products from the list in late February. This means that the shortage of these products is resolved and the medicines are no longer in short supply.Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher. In late December, the FDA approved Zepbound for its second indication, moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity. In addition, LLY filed tirzepatide for heart failure, which further expands the opportunity for the candidate. It also expects to announce data from a cardiovascular outcome study on tirzepatide this year.LLY’s New Drugs & Pipeline SuccessOther than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years. These include Omvoh for ulcerative colitis, BTK inhibitor Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Ebglyss for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis and Kisunla (donanemab) for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Its new drugs contributed significantly to its top-line growth in 2024.Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025. It also expects the potential launch of new medicines like imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer to contribute to growth in 2025.Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in areas like obesity, diabetes and Alzheimer’s, with several mid to late-stage pipeline readouts expected in 2025.Competition Heating Up in the Obesity SpaceThe obesity market is heating up and is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo presently dominate the market.Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 small molecule, and triple-acting incretin, retatrutide (which combines GLP-1, GIP and glucagon), and some mid-stage candidates, bimagrumab, eloralintide and mazdutide. It expects data from phase III studies on orforglipron in type II diabetes and obesity in 2025. It also plans to file regulatory applications for orforglipron in obesity this year and for type II diabetes in 2026.Several companies like Amgen AMGN and Viking Therapeutics VKTX are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.AMGN and VKTX’s products can pose strong competition to Mounjaro/Zepbound and NVO’s Ozempic/Wegovy in the future.LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and EstimatesLilly’s shares have risen 9.9% in the past year against a decrease of 2.2% for the industry.LLY Stock Outperforms IndustryImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.LLY Stock ValuationImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLLY Estimate MovementEstimates for Lilly’s 2025 earnings have declined from $23.79 to $23.47 per share in the past 30 days, while those for 2026 have increased from $31.09 to $31.33 over the same timeframe.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchStay Invested in LLY StockLilly has its share of problems. Sales of its key medicine, Trulicity, are declining in the United States due to competitive dynamics, including Mounjaro switches and supply constraints. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States mainly due to lower realized prices for insulins, primarily due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. Lilly’s U.S. net price has declined every year since 2021. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.However, Lilly’s tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of around $825 billion. Lilly’s stock has gone up by 492.6% in the past five years, mainly due to its successful new drug launches, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, and its solid pipeline potential. Lilly’s revenue growth is being driven by higher demand for Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio and others, making up for the decline in sales from Trulicity.In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating an impressive 32% year-over-year growth.Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were soft in the second half of 2024, we believe that over time, the supply issues for Mounjaro and Zepbound should be resolved as the company increases production capacity. Also, Lilly looks well placed to get approval for several new drugs and label expansions for marketed drugs, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, in the next few years.On capital allocation, LLY returned $3 billion to shareholders in 2024 via share repurchases and dividends. The board of directors of Lilly approved a new $15 billion stock buyback plan and also announced a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend, which bodes well for the stock.Though the stock looks quite expensive, we suggest investors who own this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company retain it as it still has robust growth prospects. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Free Stock Analysis Report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks