Coinbase Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Time to Buy the Stock?

Coinbase Global Inc. COIN is expected to register an improvement in its top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 13, after the closing bell.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating 67.2% growth from the year-ago reported figure.The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 87 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 13% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year decline of 16.4%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDecent Earnings Surprise HistoryCoinbase’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched in one, the average surprise being 341.36%. This is depicted in the following chart.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat the Zacks Model Unveils for CoinbaseOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: Coinbase has an Earnings ESP of +114.12%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.87 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents.Coinbase Global, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Coinbase Global, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Coinbase Global, Inc. QuoteZacks Rank: Coinbase currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Likely to Shape COIN’s Q4 ResultsThe fourth-quarter performance of Coinbase is likely to have benefited from increased trading volume due to higher volatility. An environment favorable for crypto growth is likely to have added to the upside. Crypto trading remains a major revenue driver for COIN. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trading volume is pegged at 355 million, indicating a twofold increase from the year-ago reported quarter.The intensifying focus on international expansion, growth of derivatives and spot trading and integration of USD Coin into the crypto economy are likely to have fueled the two largest revenue streams — trading fees and Stablecoins.Higher crypto asset volatility, coupled with improved crypto asset prices, is likely to have favored transaction revenues in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues is pegged at $986.million, indicating an upside of 86.3% from the year-ago reported quarter.The company estimates fourth-quarter 2024 transaction expenses to be in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenues.Subscription and services revenues are likely to reflect a lower average price of Ethereum, a cut in interest rate and an increase in expenses related to USDC as COIN continues to drive the global adoption of USDC. A gradual shift to subscription and services revenues, which ensures more stability, from transaction fee revenues added to the upside. Coinbase estimates fourth-quarter subscription and services revenues to be between $505 million and $580 million. Coinbase estimates technology and development and general and administrative expenses in the fourth quarter to increase, attributable to increased customer support and infrastructure expenses associated with higher trading volumes. An increase in digital marketing spending is likely to have increased sales and marketing expenses. COIN estimates sales and marketing expenses to be in the range of $170 million to $220 million in the fourth quarter.Investments in technology to enhance operational efficiency and prudent expense management are likely to have lowered costs and improved margins. COIN expects technology & development and general & administrative expenses to increase to $690-$730 million.Price Performance and ValuationCOIN stock outperformed the industry, sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite index in 2024.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCoinbase’s stock is overvalued compared to its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 76.66, higher than the industry average of 16.69. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHowever, it is still cheaper than other industry players like Virtu Financial VIRT and Fiserv Inc. FI, whose shares are trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 13.4 and 20.12, respectively.Investment ThesisCoinbase looks poised to benefit from higher crypto asset volatility and prices. It has been deepening its roots in international markets. Strengthening banking connections, locking of new licenses and expanding tailor-made product ranges to meet unique customer preferences should help COIN grow rapidly in the long run. A gradual shift to subscription and services revenues from transaction fee revenues is likely to have ensured stability in revenues.Coinbase has been investing in infrastructure and foundational platforms like Base, designed to optimize Ethereum's infrastructure by increasing the network’s speed and affordability. Technology and development expenses are likely to have increased, primarily driven by higher variable expenses, as the company remains focused on accelerating growth via strategic initiatives. Nonetheless, COIN stays focused on maintaining a low-cost structure. Return on equity, signifying the company’s ability to use shareholders' funds to generate returns, compares unfavorably with the industry average. Though cash and cash equivalents have been improving, COIN’s debt level has also been increasing but compares favorably with the industry average. Also, an improvement in times interest earned, which compares favorably with the industry average, offers some respite. Conclusion In a pro-crypto operating environment, COIN's efforts to accelerate growth, increase market share in spot trading on consumer and institutional trading platforms and improve trading experience, along with continued innovation and cost-control initiatives, should favor its performance over the long run.  However, given its premium valuation and weak return on equity, new investors can wait for a better entry point.Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and SellsWe're not kidding.Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent.Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators,and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone.See Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fiserv, Inc. (FI): Free Stock Analysis Report Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT): Free Stock Analysis Report Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks