Antero Resources (AR) Up 25.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Antero Resources (AR). Shares have added about 25.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Resources due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Antero Resources Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/YAntero Resources reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted loss of 12 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 3 cents. The bottom line also deteriorated from the year-ago reported earnings of 8 cents.Total quarterly revenues of $1,056 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,043 million. The top line, however, decreased from the year-ago figure of $1,126 million.Weak quarterly earnings can be attributed to a decrease in total gas equivalent production volumes and lower commodity price realizations. The negatives were partially offset by a decline in total operating expenses.Overall ProductionTotal production in the third quarter was 313 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), lower than 320 Bcfe recorded a year ago. Our estimate for the same was pinned at 309 Bcfe.Natural gas production (accounting for 64% of the total production) was 200 Bcf, down 4% from 208 Bcf recorded a year ago. The figure was above our estimate of 196 Bcf.Oil production in the quarter amounted to 856 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 7% from 918 MBbls registered in the year-ago period. Our estimate for the same was pegged at 920 MBbls.Antero Resources reported production of 7,302 MBbls of C2 Ethane, up 9% from 6,696 MBbls recorded a year ago. Our estimate for the same was pinned at 7,388 MBbls.The company’s production of 10,793 MBbls of C3+ NGLs was 2% lower than 10,977 MBbls reported a year ago. The figure came in higher than our estimate of 10,513 MBbls.Realized Prices (Excluding Derivative Settlements)Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization in the quarter was $3.14 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), lower than the year-ago figure of $3.32. The reported figure was higher than our estimate of $2.98.Realized prices for natural gas declined 14% to $2.13 per Mcf from $2.48 recorded a year ago. Our estimate for the same was pinned at $2.05 per Mcf.The company’s oil price realization in the quarter was $61.59 per barrel (Bbl), lower than $68.22 registered a year ago. The figure was below our estimate of $68.43 per Bbl.The realized price for C3+ NGLs increased to $41.30 per Bbl from $36.81 reported a year ago. The figure was above our estimate of $39.26 per Bbl.The realized price for C2 Ethane decreased to $8.01 per Bbl from $11.73 recorded a year ago. The figure was below our estimate of $10.39 per Bbl.Operating ExpensesTotal operating expenses decreased to $1,062 million from $1,070 million reported in the year-ago period. Our estimate for the same was pinned at $1,047.6 million.Average lease operating costs were 9 cents per Mcfe, down 10% from 10 cents recorded in the year-ago period. The gathering and compression costs were 72 cents per Mcfe, 6% higher than the prior-year recorded number.Transportation expenses declined 3.3% year over year to 58 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased 5.6% to 88 cents per Mcfe.Capex & FinancialsIn the third quarter, Antero Resources spent $148 million on drilling and completion operations. As of Sept. 30, 2024, it had no cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $1.62 billion as of the same date.GuidanceFor 2024, Antero Resources decreased its drilling and completion capital budget from the initially announced range of $650-$700 million to $640-$660 million. The company’s production guidance remains unchanged at 3.375-3.425 Bcfe per day, including higher liquid volumes.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted 163.26% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Antero Resources has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Antero Resources has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerAntero Resources belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Another stock from the same industry, EQT Corporation (EQT), has gained 23.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.EQT reported revenues of $1.38 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16%. EPS of $0.12 for the same period compares with $0.30 a year ago.For the current quarter, EQT is expected to post earnings of $0.41 per share, indicating a change of -14.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -15.5% over the last 30 days.The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for EQT. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.Free Today: Profiting from The Future’s Brightest Energy SourceThe demand for electricity is growing exponentially. At the same time, we’re working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels like oil and natural gas. Nuclear energy is an ideal replacement.Leaders from the US and 21 other countries recently committed to TRIPLING the world’s nuclear energy capacities. 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