Amgen Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Amgen AMGN will report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 30, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 0.81%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $8.51 billion and $5.11 per share, respectively.Factors to Consider for AmgenAmgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Prolia and Blincyto among others. However, prices of most products are expected to continue to decline due to higher rebates to support expanded access.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Blincyto sales is pegged at $1.11 billion, $523 million, $406.0 million and $274.0 million, respectively.Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Blincyto sales are pegged at $1.09 billion, $502 million, $381.9 million and $272.7 million, respectively.In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth. Like the previous quarters, Tezspire volumes are likely to have benefited from the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled, single-use pen formulation of the drug.Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $257.6 and $91.4 million, respectively.Imdelltra (tarlatamab), approved for pre-treated advanced small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in May 2024, recorded sales of $12 million in the second quarter. Sales are expected to be higher in the third quarter.Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to flat volume growth and declining prices. Otezla sales were soft in the first and second quarters. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the third quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $563.0 million, while our estimate is $588.0 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $923.0 million, while our estimate is $920.1 million.Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have improved the top line.However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products are expected to hurt the top line.In the second half of 2024, R&D costs are expected to have increased while operating margins are expected to have been lower than the first half of 2024. Operating margin in the third quarter is expected to have been lower than the second-quarter level. In the third quarter, total adjusted costs are expected to have risen at a similar rate to the first and second quarters.Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity, an area gaining significant popularity.AMGN’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThis large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.47%, on average.Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise         Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. QuoteAmgen’s stock has risen 11% so far this year against a decrease of 3.1% for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFind the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.What Our Model Says for AMGNOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is -1.07%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $5.11 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $5.05 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks to ConsiderHere are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Pfizer’s stock is up 0.1% year to date. Pfizer exceeded earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 69.82%, on average. Pfizer is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct. 29.Regeneron REGN has an Earnings ESP of +2.90% and a Zacks Rank #3.Regeneron’s stock has risen 9.6% year to date. REGN beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. On average, Regeneron witnessed an earnings surprise of 6.01% in the last four quarters. REGN will report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 31Biogen BIIB has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #3.Biogen’s stock has lost 28.2% year to date. BIIB beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. On average, Biogen delivered a negative earnings surprise of 10.25% in the last four quarters. BIIB will report third-quarter results on Oct. 30.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN): Free Stock Analysis Report Biogen Inc. (BIIB): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. 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