What's in Store for Marathon Petroleum Stock in Q4 Earnings?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC is set to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's profit is pegged at 37 cents per share on revenues of $30.72 billion.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MPC’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter. Highlights of MPC’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise HistoryIn the last reported quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator’s earnings beat the consensus mark on the back of lower costs and expenses. MPC reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.87, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. Revenues of $35.4 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.7%. Marathon Petroleum’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 51.71%. This is depicted in the graph below.Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote Trend in Estimate Revision for MPC StockThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 46.4% downward in the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 90.7% decline year over year. Meanwhile, the top-line estimate implies a 16.56% decrease from the year-ago period’s level. Factors to Consider Ahead of MPC’s Q4 ReleaseMarathon Petroleum makes money through two main segments, Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale, and distributes refined products like transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products, and gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids.The Midstream segment is expected to have provided steady earnings, driven by projects like pipeline expansion and new gas processing facilities in the Permian and Marcellus basins. These initiatives are expected to have boosted volumes and improved efficiency in the quarter to be reported. On the other hand, HP’s high utilization rates (projected at 90% for the fourth quarter) and value-chain optimization efforts are likely to have supported profitability by reducing costs and enhancing operational efficiency.On a bearish note, the Refining & Marketing segment is likely to have faced pressure on the top line, due to declining crack spreads and weaker seasonal demand for gasoline and distillates. Our model expects fourth-quarter revenues for the Refining & Marketing segment to be $30.63 billion, indicating a 12.6% decline compared with the reported figure of year-ago quarter. This is expected to have impacted top-line growth.Furthermore, planned maintenance in key regions, such as the Mid-Continent area, is expected to have reduced throughput, which may result in lower production and profitability.On a more cautious note, refining operating costs are expected to have increased to $5.50 per barrel, up from previous quarters. This rise in costs, coupled with weaker margins, is likely to have further pressured the bottom line, constraining profitability and reducing overall earnings potential in the to-be-reported quarter. What Does Our Model Say About MPC?The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.25%.Zacks Rank:  MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Stocks to ConsiderHere are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.California Resources CRC has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The firm is scheduled to release earnings on March 3. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for California’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.03% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.67 billion, CRC’s shares have risen 0.1% in a year.Ovintiv OVV has an Earnings ESP of +3.09% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 26.In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved up 6.3%. Valued at around $11.34 billion, OVV’s shares have gained 2.1% in a year.Energy Transfer ET has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 6.08% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $67.83 billion, ET has gained 40% in a year.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.3% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Free Stock Analysis Report Energy Transfer LP (ET): Free Stock Analysis Report California Resources Corporation (CRC): Free Stock Analysis Report Ovintiv Inc. (OVV): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks