Summit Stock Skyrockets Nearly 700% YTD: Time to Sell or Hold?

Shares of Summit Therapeutics SMMT have soared 689% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry’s 2.5% decline. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same period. SMMT’s shares are also trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.SMMT Stock Outperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis uptick in stock price started in May after the company reported that its lead pipeline drug ivonescimab outdid Merck’s MRK blockbuster oncology drug Keytruda in a head-to-head phase III HARMONi-2 study in certain patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).Let’s delve into the company’s strengths and weaknesses to gain a better understanding of how to play the stock amid this price surge.SMMT Boasts Ivonescimab Efficacy Over KeytrudaThe HARMONi-2 study evaluated ivonescimab against the Merck drug in patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC whose tumors have positive PD-L1 expression. The study was conducted in China with Summit’s collaboration partner, Akeso, also the drug's original developer. Summit in-licensed the right to develop and market the drug in 2022 across several territories, including the United States and Europe.In May 2024, Summit reported positive results from the Akeso-sponsored phase III HARMONi-2 study, which showed that treatment with ivonescimab led to statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in the primary endpoint of progression-free survival. Management also reported additional results from this study last month, which showed that ivonescimab also cut the risk of disease progression or death by nearly half compared to Keytruda.A clinically meaningful benefit of the drug was also seen across multiple clinical subgroups, including those with PD-L1 low and high expression, squamous and non-squamous histologies, and other high-risk patients.Unlike Merck’s Keytruda, which targets the PD-1 protein, the Summit drug is a first-in-class bispecific antibody that targets two proteins, namely PD-1 and VEGF. Management believes that this dual mechanism differentiates ivonescimab from currently available therapies for solid tumors as there is a potentially higher expression of both PD-1 and VEGF in tumor tissue compared to the normal tissues in the body.Lack of Marketed Products: A Concern for SMMTWith no approved product in its commercial portfolio, Summit lacks a source of regular income. With no marketed drug in its portfolio, the company has to shoulder significant cash burn due to ongoing clinical studies. Besides ivonescimab, SMMT has no other investigational drug in its pipeline. Delayed approvals or development setbacks would negatively impact the stock.Competition in Targeted Markets Poses Threat to SMMTWhile we acknowledge that Summit’s pipeline drug has demonstrated encouraging results in clinical studies, the company faces stiff competition in its targeted markets. If ivonescimab is approved in the licensed territories, Summit will compete directly with pharma big-wigs like AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, Roche and Merck. These companies not only market the standard of care medications in the oncology space but also develop innovative and novel therapies in this field. Also, they have a well-established distribution and supply-chain infrastructure, which SMMT lacks.Also, Summit is not the only company developing a dual bispecific antibody for oncology indications. Some companies like BioNTech BNTX and Instil Bio TIL are also developing their respective PD-1/VEGF targeting antibody candidates, namely BNT327 and SYN-2510. While SMMT’s therapy is ahead in terms of clinical development, the BNTX and TIL candidates are not too far away. They are in early-stage or mid-stage development across multiple solid tumors. One of these candidates even carries an edge over ivonescimab. Instil Bio’s SYN-2510 has shown the potential to block both VEGF-A and VEGF-B compared to ivonescimab, which blocks only VEGF-A.SMMT Stock Valuation & EstimatesThe company is trading at a premium to the industry. Going by the price/book ratio, the stock currently trades at 76.47, trailing 12-month book value, higher than 1.33 for the industry. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEstimates for Summit’s 2024 and 2025 loss per share have been consistent at 27 and 29 cents, respectively, in the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow to Play SMMT Stock?Though ivonescimab is the first drug to have shown clinically meaningful benefit over Keytruda in a phase III study in NSCLC, Summit still has a long way to go. As the HARMONi-2 study was conducted solely in China, the FDA is unlikely to accept the results, given the lack of a diverse patient population. This is a major reason for management to sponsor a similar study of its own, called HARMONi-7, across several countries. It is expected to start early next year. Data from this study is expected in 2027.At this point, we would advise investors to steer clear of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company. The company’s dependence on just one product poses a serious concern. Any development/regulatory setback could mar the stock’s growth prospects. Also, Summit has yet to report data from any of its own sponsored studies. Until now, all results reported by the company are from partner Akeso-sponsored studies.While SMMT has started two late-stage studies of the drug, data from any of these studies are not expected until next year. We would recommend investors to wait and watch for a couple of pipeline updates from its own sponsored studies before investing in SMMT. The company’s valuation also suggests that the stock is significantly overvalued when compared to the industry.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Free Stock Analysis Report Summit Therapeutics PLC (SMMT): Free Stock Analysis Report Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL): Free Stock Analysis Report BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks