Rising Medical Costs to Affect Cigna Q4 Earnings? Check Estimates Here

Global health insurance company The Cigna Group CI is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $7.83 per share on revenues of $63.25 billion. See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.The fourth-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past week. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 15.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 23.7%. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s revenues is pegged at $244.64 billion, implying a rise of 25.3% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2024 EPS is pegged at $28.50, signaling growth of 13.6%, year over year.Cignabeat the earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 4.4%. This is depicted in the figure below.Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise Cigna Group price-eps-surprise | Cigna Group QuoteQ4 Earnings Whispers for CignaHowever, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.CI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.What’s Shaping Cigna’s Q4 Results?Cigna’s revenues are likely to have benefited on the back of solid pharmacy revenues stemming from a well-performing specialty pharmacy business within the Evernorth segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pharmacy revenues indicates a 31.7% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s number.The consensus mark for premiums predicts a 2.5% increase from the year-ago quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for fees and other revenues signals 22.5% year-over-year growth.The consensus mark for revenues from the overall Evernorth segment is pegged at $51.1 billion, indicating 26.1% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Organic growth in Specialty and Care Services businesses and new client wins are likely to have aided the segment.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Healthcare revenues suggests a 3.1% increase. Premium rate hikes are expected to have benefited the business in the fourth quarter. While the above-mentioned factors are likely to have positioned the company for year-over-year growth, lower total customers and net investment income and rising medical costs are likely to have partially offset the positives, making an earnings beat uncertain.The consensus mark for Cigna’s total medical customers is pegged at 19.17 million, indicating a decline from 19.78 million a year ago. Lower U.S. Healthcare administrative services medical customers are likely to have affected the numbers.A decline in net investment income is likely to have been a roadblock to Cigna’s revenue growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income suggests a 12.3% year-over-year decline. Its margins are expected to have suffered a blow due to an elevated medical cost level resulting from continued higher utilization trends, and unit cost inflation. This, in turn, is likely to have led to an elevated medical care ratio (MCR) for Cigna. The consensus mark for MCR is pegged at 84.52%, up from 82.20% a year ago. Stocks That Warrant a LookWhile an earnings beat looks uncertain for Cigna, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. RYTM has an Earnings ESP of +11.60% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rhythm Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter has witnessed two upward estimate revisions in the past 60 days against no opposite movement. The consensus estimate for RYTM’s revenues is pegged at $36.23 million, a 49.5% increase from a year ago.Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. TARS has an Earnings ESP of +32.92% and a Zacks Rank of 2.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 48.1% year-over-year improvement. TARS beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.7%.Natera, Inc. NTRA has an Earnings ESP of +61.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Natera’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 34.4% improvement from a year ago. NTRA beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 36.4%.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cigna Group (CI): Free Stock Analysis Report Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RYTM): Free Stock Analysis Report Natera, Inc. (NTRA): Free Stock Analysis Report Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks