Peloton to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Peloton Interactive, Inc. PTON is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Feb. 6, before the opening bell.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.In the last reported quarter, the company reported breakeven earnings per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 15 cents.The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 35.5%.Trend in Estimate Revision of PTONPeloton Interactive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Peloton Interactive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Peloton Interactive, Inc. QuoteThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter loss per share has widened to 20 cents from 19 cents in the past 30 days. However, the bottom-line estimate implies an improvement of 63% from a loss of 54 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $655.2 million. The metric suggests a deterioration of 11.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.Factors Likely to Shape Peloton’s Quarterly ResultsPeloton’s second-quarter revenues are likely to have declined year over year courtesy of weakness in subscription trends. Shifts in consumer demand within the connected fitness market and increased competition from traditional gyms and other fitness platforms are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter.Peloton anticipates a sequential decline of 50,000 in paid Connected Fitness subscriptions in the fiscal second quarter, bringing the total to 2.84-2.86 million. Similarly, app subscriptions are projected to decline by 12,000 due to a reduction in app media spending. The company expects fiscal second-quarter revenues to be in the range of $640 million to $660 million.PTON forecasts second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $20-$30 million, a sequential decline of $91 million at the midpoint, primarily due to higher sales and marketing costs associated with increased holiday media spending. While these investments are expected to drive customer acquisition, they could have weighed on the company’s profitability in the fiscal second quarter.Macroeconomic factors such as inflation and higher interest rates are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter. The company projects a total gross margin of 46.5%, reflecting a sequential decline of 534 basis points due to a mix shift toward lower-margin Connected Fitness Products during the holiday period.Increased focus on product innovations (including app enhancements like Strength+ and personalized plans), investment in innovation (across hardware, software and content) and third-party retail and distribution models are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal second quarter. The company’s ability to optimize its retail footprint and reduce marketing expenses, while maintaining customer engagement, is expected to have supported earnings growth in the to-be-reported quarter.What Our Model Says About Peloton StockOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Peloton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.PTON’s Earnings ESP: Hilton has an Earnings ESP of -12.28%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.PTON’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. LTH has an Earnings ESP of +14.29% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.LTH is expected to register a 10.5% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported earnings beats in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 46.2%.Trip.com Group Limited TCOM currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 1.TCOM reported earnings beats in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 42.8%. Its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 7.1%.Rush Street Interactive, Inc. RSI currently has an Earnings ESP of +22.22% and a Zacks Rank of 1.RSI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 800%. It reported earnings beats in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 225%.Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double"From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON): Free Stock Analysis Report Trip.com Group Limited Sponsored ADR (TCOM): Free Stock Analysis Report Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI): Free Stock Analysis Report Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. 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