MercadoLibre (MELI) Up 11.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MercadoLibre (MELI). Shares have added about 11.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MercadoLibre due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. MercadoLibre's Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/YMercadoLibre reported third-quarter 2024 earnings of $7.83 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 30.52% but increased 9.4% year over year.Revenues rose 35% on a year-over-year basis (103% on a FX-neutral basis) to $5.3 billion. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.11%.Total revenues were driven by accelerating commerce and fintech revenues, which grew 48% and 21% year over year to $2.12 billion and $1.79 billion, respectively.Revenues from MELI’s advertising services grew 37% on a year-over-year basis and were equivalent to almost 2% of gross merchandise volume (GMV) at the end of the third quarter.Increasing total payments volume (TPV), courtesy of the robust Mercado Pago, aided the company. MercadoLibre’s rising GMV remained another positive. Strong momentum across Brazil and Mexico also contributed well to the reported results.In the third quarter, MELI opened six new fulfillment senators, five in Brazil and one in Mexico.Quarter in DetailBrazil: Net revenues in the third quarter came in at $2.91 billion (54.8% of the total revenues), rising 41.2% year over year.Argentina: The market generated revenues of $1.03 billion (19.4% of the top line), which grew 13.5% year over year.Mexico: Net revenues in the reported quarter were $1.14 billion (21.6% of the total revenues), which soared 44% year over year.Other countries: The markets generated revenues of $221 million (4.2% of the total revenues), reflecting an increase of 39% on a year-over-year basis.Key MetricsGMV of $12.9 billion jumped 71.2% on an FX-neutral basis year over year. The figure beat the consensus mark by 0.91%.The number of successful items sold was 456 million, up 27.7% year over year.The number of successful items shipped rose 29.4% year over year to 453 million.TPV surged 72.7% year over year on a FX-neutral basis to $50.6 billion. This was driven by the strong performance of Mercado Pago. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.96%.Total payment transactions increased 47.5% year over year to $2.93 billion.Fintech monthly active users totaled 56 million, up 33.3% year over year.Operating DetailsFor the third quarter, the gross margin was 45.9%, down from 53.6% in the year-ago-period.Operating expenses were $1.88 billion, which increased 43.7% year over year. As a percentage of revenues, the figure expanded 60 bps year over year to 35.4% in the reported quarter.The operating margin was 10.5%, down from 20.9% in the year-ago-period.Balance SheetAs of Sept. 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $2.16 billion, down from $2.82 billion as of June 30, 2024.Short-term investments were $1.1 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024. Net debt came in at $1.9 billion at the end of the quarter.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted -20.28% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, MercadoLibre has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, MercadoLibre has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerMercadoLibre belongs to the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry. Another stock from the same industry, Amazon (AMZN), has gained 5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.Amazon reported revenues of $158.88 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11%. EPS of $1.43 for the same period compares with $0.85 a year ago.Amazon is expected to post earnings of $1.50 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +48.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.8%.Amazon has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.1% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI): Free Stock Analysis Report Amazon.com, Inc. 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