Marriott (MAR) Down 9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Marriott International (MAR). Shares have lost about 9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Marriott International, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Marriott Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Revenues Top, RevPAR Rises Y/YMarriott reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.Marriott delivered steady performance, supported by resilient rooms’ growth, pricing strength and continued development momentum. Global RevPAR posted modest growth, led by stronger international markets, while luxury properties continued to outperform on the back of healthy demand and favorable rates. Despite relatively stable performance in the United States & Canada, the company maintained a RevPAR premium versus peers, reflecting the strength of its diversified brand portfolio and asset-light business model.Marriott reported robust development activity, with solid organic room signings expanding the global pipeline and conversions accounting for a meaningful share of additions. Portfolio enhancements and strong loyalty engagement further supported growth, with member stays representing a significant portion of global room nights. With disciplined execution and sustained travel demand, the company remains well-positioned to deliver healthy net rooms’ growth and long-term shareholder value.MAR’s Q4 Earnings & Revenue DiscussionMarriott’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64. It reported adjusted earnings of $2.45 per share in the prior-year quarter.Quarterly revenues of $6.69 billion beat the consensus mark of $6.68 billion. The top line moved up 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.Revenues from Base management and Franchise fees were $343 million and $795 million, up 3% and 6% year over year, respectively. Increased RevPAR, higher co-branded credit card fees and unit growth backed this uptick. Incentive management fees were $239 million, reflecting a rise of 16% from $206 million reported in the prior-year quarter. We projected the metric to be $208.4 million.MAR’s RevPAR & MarginsRevPAR for worldwide comparable system-wide properties rose 1.9% (in constant dollars) year over year. This upside was backed by a 2.5% increase in average daily rate (“ADR”), offset by a 0.4% fall in occupancy year over year.Comparable system-wide RevPAR in the Asia Pacific (excluding China) increased 8.8% (in constant dollars) year over year. Occupancy moved up 1% year over year, while ADR rose 7.3%. Comparable system-wide RevPAR in Greater China increased 3.4% year over year.On a constant-dollar basis, international comparable system-wide RevPAR increased 6.1% year over year. Occupancy and ADR gained 1% and 4.5%, respectively, year over year. Comparable system-wide RevPAR in Europe gained 3.4% year over year. RevPAR in the Caribbean & Latin America and the Middle East & Africa rose 2.1% and 12.8%, respectively, year over year.Total expenses during the fourth quarter came in at $5.91 billion compared with $5.68 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $1.4 billion compared with $1.29 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.Balance Sheet of MARAt the fourth-quarter end, Marriott's total debt totaled $16.2 billion compared with $14.4 reported in the prior quarter. Cash and cash equivalents, as of Dec. 31, 2025, were $0.4 billion, flat year over year.Year to date (through Feb. 6, 2026), the company repurchased 1.1 million shares worth $350 million.MAR’s Unit DevelopmentsAt the end of the fourth quarter, Marriott's worldwide development pipeline totaled 4,056 hotels. As of the quarter's end, about 1,648 properties with nearly 265,000 rooms were under construction.MAR’s 2025 HighlightsTotal revenues in 2025 came in at $26.2 billion compared with $25.1 billion in 2024.Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 came in at $5.38 billion compared with $4.98 billion in 2024.In 2025, adjusted diluted EPS came in at $10.02 compared with $9.33 reported in the previous year.Marriott’s Q1 & 2026 OutlookFor the first quarter, management anticipates gross fee revenues in the range of $1.37-$1.38 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.31 billion and $1.33 billion. MAR estimates first-quarter adjusted diluted EPS to be between $2.50 and $2.55.The company projects worldwide system-wide RevPAR to increase 1.5-2.5% year over year in 2026.For 2026, Marriott reduced its gross fee revenue expectations to $5.90-$5.96 billion. General and administrative expenses are projected in the range of $875-$895 million.Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $5.84 billion and $5.93 billion. The company envisions 2026 adjusted diluted EPS in the band of $11.32-$11.57.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.VGM ScoresCurrently, Marriott has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Marriott has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks