Guess? Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, View Cut Amid External Challenges

Guess?, Inc. GES posted third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate and earnings declined year over year. Revenues increased year over year, mainly backed by the rag & bone buyout (concluded in April 2024) and modest growth in the company’s core businesses. The company is lowering its earnings and revenue outlook due to external challenges, including currency fluctuations, elevated freight costs and increased taxes. GES also anticipates that weak consumer sentiment and sluggish customer traffic in North America and Asia will continue to negatively affect its business in the fourth quarter. Despite these near-term challenges, the company remains focused on advancing its vision for growth and is committed to pursuing opportunities for long-term success in the coming year.GES’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics & InsightsGES posted adjusted earnings of 34 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents and declined 31% year over year.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Guess?, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  Guess?, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Guess?, Inc. QuoteNet revenues amounted to $738.5 million, up 13% year over year, while missing the consensus mark of $751 million. On a constant-currency (cc) basis, net revenues rose 14%. The strong performance was driven by the rag & bone acquisition and modest growth in core Guess businesses. All operating segments saw revenue growth, except for the Licensing segment, which was impacted by the internalization of the outerwear business, resulting in flat revenues. While Europe performed strongly, North America and Asia faced a more challenging environment, with slow customer traffic in direct-to-consumer channels. Gross margin contracted to 43.6% from 44.7% reported in the year-ago quarter. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses increased to 37.8% from 36% in the prior-year quarter.Adjusted earnings from operations were $42.8 million, down 26.1% from $57.9 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The adjusted operating margin was 5.8%, down from 8.9% reported in the same quarter last year. This downtick was mainly caused by increased expenses and the unfavorable impact of the channel mix.Decoding GES’s Segmental PerformanceRevenues in the Americas Retail segment rose 12% in U.S. dollars and 14% at cc. However, retail comparable sales, including e-commerce, declined 14% in U.S. dollars and 12% at cc. The operating margin in the segment was negative 4.3%, down 9.6% year over year. This decline was caused by the adverse effects of negative comparable sales, higher expenses and increased markdowns.Americas Wholesale revenues soared 79% on a reported basis and 83% at cc. The segment’s operating margin declined 3.4% to 25.7% due to the impact of newly acquired businesses.The Europe segment’s revenues increased 7% and 6% on a reported basis and at cc, respectively. Retail comp sales (including e-commerce) moved up 8% on a reported basis and 7% at cc. The segmental operating margin was 8.8%, down 1.5% year over year, due to higher expenses and the impact of newly acquired businesses. This was partially offset by lower markdowns and the favorable effect of higher revenues.Asia revenues inclined 2% on both reported basis and at cc. Retail comp sales (including e-commerce) fell 17% and 16% on a reported basis and at cc, respectively. The operating margin in the segment was negative 2%, down 3% year over year. This downside was primarily due to lower product margins and reduced revenues, partially offset by lower expenses.Licensing revenues remained flat on both reported basis and at cc. Segmental operating margin was 91.8% compared with 93.1% in the year-ago quarter. The reduction in the operating margin was due to increased expenses.GES’ Financial Health Snapshot & Shareholder Friendly MovesThe company exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $140.9 million and long-term debt and finance lease obligations of nearly $238.3 million. Stockholders’ equity was around $450.7 million.Net cash used in operating activities for the nine months ended Nov. 2, 2024, was $61.6 million. Free cash flow for the same period amounted to a negative $130.4 million. For the fiscal 2025, free cash flow is expected to be $40 million.GES announced a quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share, payable on Dec. 27, 2024, to its shareholders on record as of Dec. 11.The company repurchased about 2.6 million shares for $60.3 million during the nine-month period ended Nov. 2, 2024.What to Expect From GES in the Future?For fiscal 2025, Guess expects revenues at or slightly below $3 billion, indicating growth to be between 7.1% and 8.1%, down from the previous range of 9.5-11%.The adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 6.2% and 6.5%, revised from the earlier forecast of 7.3% to 7.8% for fiscal 2025. The GAAP operating margin is anticipated to range from 6.1-6.4% compared with the previous estimate of 7.2-7.7%.Management forecasts fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be between $1.85 and $2, down from the earlier range of $2.42 to $2.70 and compared with $3.14 reported in fiscal 2024. On a GAAP basis, EPS is expected to fall between 70-82 cents compared with the previous estimation of $1.92 to $2.14 and $3.09 in fiscal 2024.For fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, management expects revenue growth in the 2.2-5.4% band. Adjusted operating margin is likely to be between 12.2% and 13%. On an adjusted basis, EPS is forecasted in the range of $1.37-$1.52. On a GAAP basis, EPS is anticipated in the range of $1.10-$1.22.Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have declined 14.3% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 17.1% growth. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Stocks to ConsiderRalph Lauren Corporation RL designs, markets and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, Asia and internationally. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.RL has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.1%. The consensus estimate for Ralph Lauren’s current-financial year sales and earnings indicates advancements of 3.5% and 13.6%, respectively, from the prior-year figures.Gildan Activewear Inc. GIL manufactures and sells various apparel products in the United States, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. It carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. GIL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4%, on average.The consensus estimate for Gildan Activewear’s current-financial year sales and earnings indicates advancements of 1.5% and 15.6%, respectively, from the prior-year figures.Kontoor Brands, Inc. KTB is a lifestyle apparel company that designs, produces, procures, markets, distributes, and licenses denim, apparel, footwear and accessories, primarily under the Wrangler and Lee brands. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. KTB has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 12.8%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kontoor Brands’ current-fiscal year earnings indicates growth of 13.2% from the year-ago actuals.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.1% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): Free Stock Analysis Report Guess?, Inc. (GES): Free Stock Analysis Report Gildan Activewear, Inc. (GIL): Free Stock Analysis Report Kontoor Brands, Inc. 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