Gilead Sciences to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

Biotech giant Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 11, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $7.06 billion and $1.66 per share, respectively.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.GILD’s Earnings Surprise HistoryGILD’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 15.46%.Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Gilead Sciences, Inc. QuoteWhat Our Model Predicts for GILDOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP:  Earnings ESP for GILD is +1.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.Factors Influencing GILD’s Q4 ResultsGilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy. Higher Biktarvy sales, boosted by higher demand, have likely fueled sales. Biktarvy continues to gain market share in the United States, outpacing all other branded regimens for HIV treatment. Descovy’s revenues, too, have likely increased as the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) market continued to demonstrate robust growth.  Sales have likely remained flat on a sequential basis.The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.46 billion and $574 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.46 billion and $558.5 million.The Liver Disease portfolio sales include chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus and chronic hepatitis delta virus. Higher demand for viral hepatitis medicines has likely boosted sales of this franchise in the fourth quarter.  The FDA had earlier granted accelerated approval to seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), in combination with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), in adults who have had an inadequate response to UDCA, or as monotherapy in patients unable to tolerate UDCA, under the brand name Livdelzi.Gilead launched Livdelzi for PBC in mid-August. Incremental sales from this new drug must have positively impacted Liver Disease portfolio sales.Veklury sales continue to be highly variable. Lower COVID-related hospitalizations might have resulted in lower sales.Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) have likely decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds both in and out of class in the United States.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $480 million and $481.7 million, respectively.Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, has also likely been impacted in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $282 million and $298.6 million, respectively.R&D expenses might have decreased due to discontinuation of certain programs and careful expense management. SG&A expenses might have increased.Key Recent DevelopmentsIn December 2024, the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation to Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan-hziy) for the treatment of adult patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) whose disease has progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy.The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency adopted a positive opinion recommending seladelpar for the treatment of PBC in combination with UDCA in adults who have an inadequate response to UDCA alone or as monotherapy in those unable to tolerate UDCA. A final decision is anticipated in the first quarter of 2025.GILD’s Price PerformanceGilead’s shares have gained 31.8% in the past year against the industry's decline of 6.3%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOther Stocks to ConsiderSarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.SRPT beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surpribeing 981.21%.Exelixis, Inc. EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +3.54% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. EXEL’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 26.52%.EXEL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 11.Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +0.77% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.VRTX’s earnings outpaced estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 3.26%.VRTX is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 10. Free Today: Profiting from The Future’s Brightest Energy SourceThe demand for electricity is growing exponentially. At the same time, we’re working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels like oil and natural gas. Nuclear energy is an ideal replacement.Leaders from the US and 21 other countries recently committed to TRIPLING the world’s nuclear energy capacities. This aggressive transition could mean tremendous profits for nuclear-related stocks – and investors who get in on the action early enough.Our urgent report, Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback, explores the key players and technologies driving this opportunity, including 3 standout stocks poised to benefit the most.Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL): Free Stock Analysis Report Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. 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