Donaldson (DCI) Down 8.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Donaldson (DCI). Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Donaldson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. Donaldson's Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Sales Rise Year Over YearDonaldson reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Oct. 31, 2024) adjusted earnings of 83 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. The bottom line increased 10.7% year over year.Revenue ResultsTotal revenues of $900.1 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $891 million. The top line increased 6.4% year over year (up 5% at constant currency), driven by strength in aftermarket arising from market share gains and customer destocking.Region-wise, Donaldson’s net sales in the United States/Canada increased 7% year over year. The metric increased 5% year over year in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and 6% in Latin America. Also, net sales in the Asia Pacific improved 7%.Donaldson reports revenues under three segments, namely Mobile Solutions, Industrial Solutions and Life Sciences.A brief snapshot of segmental sales is provided below.The Mobile Solutions segment’s (accounting for 63.6% of net sales) sales were $572.4 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6%. Results benefited from a 10.7% improvement in aftermarket sales. However, sales fell 5.9% in Off-Road and 15% in On-Road businesses during the quarter.Revenues generated from the Industrial Solutions segment (28.6%) were $257.6 million, up 4.6% year over year. Results benefited from sales growth of 26.8% in Aerospace and Defense businesses.Revenues generated from the Life Sciences segment (7.8%) were $70.1 million, up 16.6% year over year. The results benefited from volume growth in Disk Drive and Food and Beverage businesses.Donaldson’s Margin ProfileIn the fiscal first quarter, Donaldson’s cost of sales inched up 6.4% year over year to $580.5 million. Gross profit jumped 6.2% to $319.6 million. The gross margin decreased 10 basis points (bps) to 35.5% due to higher costs.Operating expenses rose 7.1% year over year to $188.8 million. Operating profit increased 4.9% to $130.8 million. The operating margin was 14.5%, up 20 bps year over year.The effective tax rate was 24.2% compared with 25.1% in the year-ago quarter.Balance Sheet & Cash FlowExiting the fiscal first quarter, Donaldson’s cash and cash equivalents were $221.2 million compared with $232.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Long-term debt was $538.6 million compared with $483.4 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.In the first three months of fiscal 2025, the company generated net cash of $72.9 million from operating activities, indicating a decrease of 47.2% year over year. Capital expenditure (net) totaled $25.0 million compared with $23.2 million in the year-ago fiscal period. Free cash flow decreased 58.3% to $47.9 million. In the same time frame, management did not repay any long-term debt.It used $74.4 million to repurchase stocks and $32.4 million to pay out dividends during the first three months of fiscal 2025.Donaldson’s FY25 OutlookFor fiscal 2025 (ending July 2025), Donaldson expects adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.56-$3.72 compared with $3.42 in fiscal 2024. Sales are anticipated to increase in the 2-6% band from the fiscal 2024 level. Positive pricing is projected to have an accretive impact of 1%.On a segmental basis, Mobile Solutions’ sales are expected to be flat to increase 4% from the fiscal 2024 level. Industrial Solutions’ sales are envisioned to jump in the range of 4-8% from the year-ago figure. The company forecasts its Life Sciences segment’s sales to increase in the low-double-digit range.Interest expenses are predicted to be approximately $21 million while other income is projected to be in the range of $16-$20 million. The effective tax rate is anticipated to be between 23% and 25%.Capital expenditure is expected to be between $85 million and $105 million. Free cash flow conversion is anticipated to be in the range of 85-95%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.VGM ScoresCurrently, Donaldson has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Donaldson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2024Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2025. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful. From inception in 2012 through November, 2024, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,112.6%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +475.6%. 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