CALIFORNIA, ILLINOIS, FLORIDA AND NEW YORK CITY AREA LEAD HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DOWNTURNS

Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Include New York City and Chicago Regions Along with Inland California; Other Parts of Midwest, Northeast and South Faces Relatively Small Exposure; Differences Caused by Wide Gaps in Affordability, Foreclosures, Underwater Mortgages and Unemployment

IRVINE, Calif., March 6, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the fourth quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, Illinois and the New York City area had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also in that mix. Less-vulnerable markets were clustered in various other areas of the Northeast, Midwest and South.

The fourth-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment - revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and the New York City region.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included five in and around Chicago, IL, four in or near New York City and seven scattered across Florida. Another 14 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were spread across different stretches of the Midwest, Northeast and South, which had a range of high- and low-risk markets.

At the other end of the exposure spectrum, roughly half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee and Pennsylvania. They included four in the Washington, DC, area and three each in the Nashville, TN, and Richmond, VA, regions.

As with earlier periods over the past few years, the latest gaps continued trends resulting from the nation's 14-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, affecting different parts of the country in different ways.

The ongoing rise in home prices around much of the nation has outpaced most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

"Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators," said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. "This report isn't meant to raise red flags or predict endless gains—it simply highlights counties experiencing more or less pressure that could influence home values, foreclosures, or homeowner equity."

He added that "as always, we will keep tracking these patterns as market conditions evolve."

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates.

The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 566 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the fourth quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

Risk disparities remain in place across the U.S. amid market forces that could combine to cool off the nation's housing market boom onward or spur it ever higher.

Home buyers continue to confront record-high home prices that remain widely unaffordable across the country, threatening the rise in values. A recent increase in home-mortgage rates puts further downward pressure on prices by making ownership costs even higher. At the same time, though, a historically low supply of homes for sale along with elevated investment markets that give more resources to buyers remain formidable sources of energy for further price spikes. That is especially true as the market approaches its annual Spring buying season.

Markets more exposed to declines clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 23 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the fourth quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 566 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and Richmond County, which covers Staten Island) and two in the New York City suburbs (Essex and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey).

The 14 in California were Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka), Shasta County (Redding) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Elsewhere, the most vulnerable counties included three in the Washington, DC, area (Washington, DC, along with Charles County and Prince George's County in Maryland) and these in Florida: Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Hernando County (Spring Hill), Lake County (Clermont), Marion County (outside Gainesville), Pasco County (outside Tampa), Polk County (Lakeland) and St. Lucie County (Port St. Lucie).

Most vulnerable markets again to have worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 28 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the fourth quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the fourth quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above commonly accepted affordability benchmarks.

The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (106.5 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.4 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (69.4 percent); Richmond County (Staten Island), NY (67.6 percent) and El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.5 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the fourth quarter of 2024 in 29 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.7 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were Pasco County, FL (outside Tampa) (15.8 percent underwater); Baltimore City/County, MD (15.3 percent); Orleans Parish (New Orleans), LA (15.3 percent); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (14 percent) and Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (14 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 properties faced a foreclosure action in the fourth quarter of 2024 in 37 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,671 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 198 properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 484); Kaufman County, TX (outside Dallas) (one in 562); Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (one in 631) and Shasta County (Redding), CA (one in 664).

The November 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 25 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (7.9 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.9 percent); Fresno County, CA (7.8 percent); Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.3 percent) and Stanislaus County (Modesto) CA (6.7 percent).

Counties least at-risk spread widely around Midwest, Northeast and South
Twenty-three of the 51 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 566 reviewed in the fourth-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 each were in Midwest and Northeast, followed by two in the West. (Fifty-one counties were included because of a tie in rankings.)

Wisconsin had eight of the least at-risk counties in the fourth quarter. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County, Washington County (outside Milwaukee) and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Tennessee had six. They were Davidson, Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Knox County (Knoxville), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Another five were Pennsylvania: Cumberland and Dauphin counties in the Harrisburg metro area, Erie County, Lebanon County and Lehigh County (Allentown).

Aside from Dane and Davidson counties, three other counties with a population of at least 500,000 were among the 51 least at risk – Fairfax County, VA (outside Washington, DC), Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), NC, and Wake County (Raleigh), NC.

Better market metrics continue to boost less-vulnerable counties
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 10 of the 51 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the fourth quarter of 2024 (compared to 28 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Monongalia County (Morganton), WV (23.8 percent); Erie County, PA (25.1 percent); Dauphin County (Harrisburg), PA (25.5 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (26.1 percent) and Richmond City/County, VA (26.2 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the fourth quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only two of the 51 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.9 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County, VA (outside Richmond) (2.1 percent) and Williamson County, TN (outside Nashville) (2.3 percent).

More than one in 1,000 properties faced a foreclosure action during the fourth quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Cumberland County (Carlisle), PA (one in 36,385 properties faced possible foreclosure); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 24,403); Winnebago County (Oshkosh), WI (one in 19,903); Gallatin County (Bozeman), MT (one in 13,401) and Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 12,823).

The November 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level in all 51 of the least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent) and La Crosse County, WI (2.1 percent), with four others at 2.2 percent. Those four were Eau Claire County, WI; Outagamie County, WI (outside Green Bay); Washington County (Fayetteville), AR, and Olmsted County (Rochester), MN.

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM's fourth-quarter 2024 foreclosure activity, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus November 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the fourth-quarter percentage of properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with November 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloud, bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, property navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com 

Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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