Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Ares Capital (ARCC) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.Shares of this private equity firm have returned -0.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The Zacks Financial - SBIC & Commercial Industry industry, to which Ares Capital belongs, has gained 1.1% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.Ares Capital is expected to post earnings of $0.58 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.1%.The consensus earnings estimate of $2.36 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -0.4%. This estimate has changed -1.3% over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.21 indicates a change of -6.5% from what Ares Capital is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.5%.Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Ares Capital is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Ares Capital, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $786.2 million indicates a year-over-year change of +11.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $3.01 billion and $3.12 billion estimates indicate +15.3% and +3.7% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryAres Capital reported revenues of $775 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18.3%. EPS of $0.58 for the same period compares with $0.59 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $766.94 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.05%. The EPS surprise was -1.69%.Over the last four quarters, Ares Capital surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Ares Capital is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Ares Capital. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double"From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks