Affirm Gains 42% Year to Date: Should You Buy Now or Hold the Stock?

Affirm Holdings, Inc.’s AFRM shares have gained 42.3% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s 22.3% growth. It has also outperformed the broader Zacks Business Services sector’s 21.8% rise and the S&P 500’s 27.3% increase in the said time frame. The company has been benefiting on the back of an expanding buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) market, advanced risk assessment technology and merchant partnership growth. It has a market cap of $22 billion. Closing at $69.93 in the last trading session, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum.Year-to-Date Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAFRM’s Key TailwindsAffirm's proprietary technology harnesses advanced tools like machine learning and artificial intelligence to deliver a powerful platform that enhances payment experiences for both consumers and merchants. Its seamless integration capabilities allow it to support a diverse range of merchant operations, from small e-commerce businesses to large corporations, showcasing its flexibility and broad commercial appeal. The company's innovative approach to risk management and credit underwriting distinguishes it from traditional financial institutions. By employing a proprietary risk model that leverages extensive data analytics, Affirm can design financial products tailored to various consumer needs while maintaining low fraud levels and high approval rates. Affirm’s business model benefits from robust network effects, which strengthen with each new merchant added to its platform. These network effects drive increased adoption of its financing solutions, resulting in higher merchant fees. Affirm earns revenues from merchant partners who utilize its platform to process transactions. As of Sept. 30, 2024, the company had approximately 323,000 active merchants and a growing base of repeat customers, driving $7.6 billion in gross merchandise volume during the first quarter of fiscal 2025.Strategic alliances with industry giants such as Amazon and Apple Pay act as significant growth catalysts for Affirm. These strategic alliances provide access to expansive consumer markets and enable diversification of revenue streams across various sectors. Partnerships with JD Sports and Priceline, which were announced in November 2024, were means to provide enhanced pay-over-time solutions to the sports retailer clients and Priceline’s B2B partner brands. The expanding BNPL market presents a prime opportunity for Affirm to capitalize on its diverse product suite. With consumers increasingly prefering installment payment options, the company is well-positioned to meet this demand. Affirm's solid financial stand, supported by substantial cash reserves and strong cash flow generation, enables it to continue investing in growth initiatives. Management expects to achieve operating income profitability on a GAAP basis by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.Estimate Revisions Favor AffirmAFRM’s fiscal 2025 earnings have witnessed one upward estimate revision during the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a 68.3% year-over-year improvement while the estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies an increase of 206.9%. It beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 17.84%. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenues indicates 33.5% and 24% year-over-year growth, respectively.Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Affirm Holdings, Inc. QuoteChallenges for AFRM’s BusinessAs a provider of digital payment solutions, Affirm’s commitment to technological advancement is essential for staying competitive in the fast-paced digital era. However, this focus results in significant expenditures on technology and data analytics, placing additional strain on the company’s ability to maintain profitability.Affirm’s platform operates in a highly competitive market and competes with established digital payment solutions such as credit and debit cards offered by major financial institutions, payment offerings from Visa V and Mastercard MA, mobile wallets like PayPal PYPL and "pay-over-time" options from companies like Block and Klarna. This intense competition poses challenges for Affirm, including pressure on profit margins and higher costs for marketing and customer acquisition.Affirm’s ValuationThe company is cheaply priced compared with the industry average. Currently, AFRM is trading at 6.39X forward 12-months sales, below the industry’s average of 7.59X.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchConclusionAffirm's innovative technology, strategic partnerships and expanding merchant base position it strongly in the growing BNPL market. With a focus on achieving GAAP profitability by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Affirm offers significant growth potential despite competition and cost pressures. AFRM’s undervaluation, despite the significant rise in share price, and improving profit estimates present a lucrative opportunity for investors to add the stock to their portfolio. AFRM currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). 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(PYPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks