How Rising Cocoa Prices and Consumer Behavior Affect HSY's Future

The Hershey Company’s HSY stock has taken a hit recently, with a 11.8% drop over the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 9.3%. The iconic chocolate maker is facing an increasingly tough environment, marked by rising commodity costs and shifting consumer behavior.Hershey reported a decline in net sales and earnings for the third quarter, causing it to lower its 2024 guidance. This weaker outlook, caused by high cocoa prices and a budget-conscious consumer base, has raised concerns about the company’s ability to weather these pressures in the coming months.Challenges Facing Hershey in 2024Hershey is operating in a challenging environment, thanks to historically high cocoa prices and a stretched consumer base, which continue to pressure its results. Total snacking consumption softened in the third quarter of 2024 as people prioritized value and budgeted for meals. Consumer behavior has shifted toward value-seeking due to economic pressures, prioritizing budgets for essentials, reducing foot traffic to convenience and drug stores where Hershey’s brands are over indexed.In addition, shopping shifts to club, dollar and online channels — where the company’s products are less developed — are further complicating matters. Tighter inventory management by customers is impacting North America Confectionery and North America Salty Snacks. Hershey is also facing increased competition across all product segments.Thanks to these factors, the company’s third-quarter net sales declined 1.4%, with price increases partially offset by volume declines. This underperformance was driven by soft consumption trends, reduced retailer inventories and seasonal shipment delays. Quarterly adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell 10% on lower sales and declining gross margins.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchPersistent Margin Pressure for HersheyThe company is grappling with continued margin pressure, a trend that extended into the third quarter of 2024. The adjusted gross margin was 40.3%, which contracted 460 basis points (bps). This decline was caused by increased commodity costs, unfavorable timing of input costs, fixed cost deleverage and a negative mix, which offset gains from price realization and productivity improvements.In addition, the adjusted operating profit of $654 million fell 13.2% year over year while the adjusted operating profit margin contracted 300 bps to 21.9%. The downside was caused by increased commodity costs, unfavorable timing of input costs, fixed cost deleverage and negative product mix.Looking ahead, Hershey expects its 2024 adjusted gross margin to decline nearly 250 bps. This projection reflects a combination of factors, including a reduced volume outlook, persistent channel and product mix challenges and the continued impact of inflation on key ingredients like cocoa and sugar. These pressures are expected to offset any benefits from price realization and supply-chain productivity improvements.HSY Navigating a Tough Road AheadHershey recently lowered its 2024 guidance, reflecting an increasingly challenging landscape. In light of current consumer and channel pressures, the company expects its sales to be nearly flat year over year, down from the previous forecast of around 2% growth. The adjustment to the sales outlook is driven by a weaker-than-expected third-quarter performance, ongoing competitive and consumer pressures and lower-than-anticipated retailer inventory levels in key categories such as confectionery and salty snacks. As a result of the reduced sales forecast, Hershey now projects its full-year adjusted EPS to decline by mid-single digits. This marks a revision from the earlier outlook, which anticipated only a slight decline in EPS.With these updated expectations, the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock’s path forward appears more challenging as the company navigates a tough market environment.Some Solid Staple BetsWe have highlighted three better-ranked stocks from the Consumer Staples sector, namely Ingredion Incorporated INGR, Freshpet FRPT and US Foods Holding Corp. USFD.Ingredion Incorporated manufactures and sells sweeteners, starches, nutrition ingredients and biomaterial solutions derived from wet milling and processing corn and other starch-based materials. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.INGR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ingredion’s current financial year’s earnings indicates growth of 12.4% from the year-ago reported number.Freshpet, a pet food company, presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. FRPT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 144.5%, on average.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 27.2% and 228.6%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported figure.US Foods, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing, sale and distribution of fresh, frozen and dry food and non-food products to food service customers in the United States. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. USFD delivered a negative earnings surprise of 0.4% in the last reported quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for US Foods Holding’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 6.4% and 18.6%, respectively, from the prior-year reported levels.Free: 5 Stocks to Buy As Infrastructure Spending SoarsTrillions of dollars in Federal funds have been earmarked to repair and upgrade America’s infrastructure. In addition to roads and bridges, this flood of cash will pour into AI data centers, renewable energy sources and more.In, you’ll discover 5 surprising stocks positioned to profit the most from the spending spree that’s just getting started in this space.Download How to Profit from the Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Boom absolutely free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company (The) (HSY): Free Stock Analysis Report Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT): Free Stock Analysis Report Ingredion Incorporated (INGR): Free Stock Analysis Report US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks