U.S. Steel to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

United States Steel Corporation X is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Jan. 30.See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.U.S. Steel surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing once. X has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50.4%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 24.4% in the last reported quarter. Weaker selling prices are likely to have hurt U.S. Steel’s fourth-quarter results.U.S. Steel’s shares have lost 24.5% over a year, compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 24.6% decline.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.What Our Model Unveils for X StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for U.S. Steel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for X is +1.33%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 25 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: U.S. Steel currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.What Do U.S. Steel’s Revenue Estimates Say?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for X is currently pegged at $3,476.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16.1%.Factors at Play for X StockWeaker prices across the company’s segments are expected to have weighed on its performance in the quarter to be reported. Weaker demand is also expected to have hurt volumes. U.S. steel prices declined sharply in 2024 due to a slowdown in end-market demand and oversupply after a strong run in late 2023 that extended into early 2024. The benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices tumbled more than 40% last year from $1,200 per short ton at the start of 2024. The downside has been influenced by a concoction of factors, including a pullback in steel mill lead times, an oversupply of steel exacerbated by increased imports, reduced demand from key industries and economic uncertainties.  Sluggish industrial production and construction activities also contributed to the decline. While the recent steel mill price hikes have led to a modest uptick in HRC prices, a significant recovery is not expected over the near term given the weak manufacturing backdrop and demand weakness. Prices are currently hovering near the $700 per short ton level. Lower selling prices are likely to have hurt U.S. Steel’s sales and margins in the quarter to be reported.U.S. Steel, last month, lowered its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) guidance to around $150 million from its previous fourth-quarter outlook of $225-$275 million. Steel prices remained under pressure, and BR2 ramp-related costs weighed on the quarter as the Big River team worked to increase prime ton production at U.S. Steel's new mill. In Europe, demand and pricing remain weak, X noted.Lower selling prices and volumes are expected to have hurt the profitability of the company’s Flat-Rolled segment. The Mini Mill segment's performance is likely to have been impacted by weaker volumes and ramp-related impact from BR2. Lower demand is expected to have hurt volumes and prices in the European segment, impacting its earnings. The Tubular segment is likely to have gained from higher volume and lower costs.Our estimate for fourth-quarter average realized price per ton for the Flat-Rolled unit stands at $925, suggesting a 6.8% decrease from the prior quarter. The same for the Mini Mill segment is pegged at $779, suggesting a 2.6% sequential decrease. Our estimate for average realized price per ton for the European segment is pinned at $776, indicating a 3.2% decline from the prior quarter. The same for the Tubular segment is $1,724, reflecting a 4.5% sequential decrease.United States Steel Corporation Price and EPS Surprise United States Steel Corporation price-eps-surprise | United States Steel Corporation QuoteBasic Materials Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:Eastman Chemical Company EMN, slated to release earnings on Jan. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +0.10% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The consensus estimate for EMN’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.58.ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release earnings on Feb. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +3.91% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.The consensus mark for ATI’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 60 cents.Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +36.76%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 23 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.3% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report United States Steel Corporation (X): Free Stock Analysis Report ATI Inc. (ATI): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report Eastman Chemical Company (EMN): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks